The Bottom Line

April 15, 2014

CBO's most recent budget projections show debt on an unsustainable path – rising from a post-war record 73 percent of GDP today to 78 percent by 2024. Importantly, however, CBO's projections do not always reflect where debt is likely to go after accounting for the actions that lawmakers might take.

April 14, 2014

The budget estimates in the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) baseline released today may have looked largely the same as in February's report, but CBO actually made significant revisions to their cost projections of the coverage provisions in the Affordable Care Act.

April 14, 2014

In advance of the release of their analysis of the President's budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated their budget baseline for fiscal years 2015-2024. While the newest projections are a slight improvement over their previous estimates in February, they still show debt on a clear upward path as a share of GDP starting in 2018 and likely continuing over the long term. 

April 14, 2014

After allowing taxes to rise on the highest 1 percent of earners at the beginning of last year, many Democrats patted themselves on the back for raising $620 billion of revenue for deficit reduction, while many Republicans declared that the tax increase fulfilled any future need to raise revenue.

April 11, 2014

In our discussion of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's (R-WI) budget, we talked about one area where the budget actually boosts spending: defense. The budget repeals the sequester for defense spending, shifting those cuts to the non-defense side while further reducing non-defense spending. However, the committee report for the budget resolution tightens the caps by clarifying the definition of what can count as war spending.

April 10, 2014

The enormous cost of providing long-term care represents a major challenge for America's health system, and a major funding challenge for Medicaid, the public program that covers much of the cost of long-term care. To identify a solution to this challenging problem, the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) recently launched a Long-Term Care Initiative (LTCI) to find a politically and fiscally viable path forward to improve the financing and delivery of long-term services and supports (LTSS).

April 9, 2014

Budgets for the upcoming fiscal year have been released from the White House, House Republicans, House Democrats, the Republican Study Committee, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and the Congressional Black Caucus. All of them offer competing visions for the size and scope of government over the next decade.

April 9, 2014

Just after House Democrats released their budget this week, the Republican Study Committee has come out with its own proposal to balance the budget in just four years. The budget reduces spending by $7.4 trillion over ten years relative to their baseline, which includes a war drawdown. By 2024, the budget produces a surplus of nearly $300 billion, or 1.1 percent of GDP.

April 9, 2014

Following House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's (R-WI) budget markup last week and floor debate this week, the Congressional Black Caucus budget released yesterday joined the Progressive Caucus and the House Democrats in their effort to offer alternatives to Chairman Ryan's budget. Their budget achieves $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction (not including war drawdown savings) over the coming decade keeping deficits between 2.5 and 3 percent of GDP.

April 9, 2014

Congressman Reid Ribble (R-WI) and Congressman Mark Pocan (D-WI) introduced the Long-Term Studies of Comprehensive Outcomes and Returns for the Economy Act, or Long-Term SCORE Act, today.

April 9, 2014

Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) FY 2015 budget achieves $3 trillion of its $5.1 trillion in deficit reduction over the next ten years from health care programs, predominantly from repealing the coverage expansions passed in the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Repealing those coverage expansions alone would reduce spending by $2.1 trillion through 2024. Notably, though, Ryan’s budget leaves the ACA’s Medicare reforms in place (although also creates a reserve fund to make it easier for Congress to replace those reforms with other cuts).

April 8, 2014

Each year, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) produces a report covering opportunities to reduce fragmentation, overlap, and duplication within the federal government. Its 2014 report, released today, is the fourth report in this annual series, which originated from an amendment authored by Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) as part of the 2010 debt ceiling legislation.

April 8, 2014

This blog has corrected the amount of Medicare savings in the budget. It previously said $50 billion, but that included the cost of repealing the Medicare sequester.

April 7, 2014

The House Ways and Means Committee is holding a hearing Tuesday to consider whether to permanently extend the business tax breaks that expired at the end of 2013. In particular, the hearing will focus on the provisions extended by Camp's Tax Reform Act of 2014; the two largest of which are the research and experimentation (R&E) tax credit and Section 179 expensing.

April 7, 2014

Although the primary purpose of a budget resolution is to set spending and revenue levels to govern the consideration of legislation by Congress, it can also contain provisions regarding budget rules and scoring procedures for legislation. The budget resolution reported by the House Budget Committee contains two particularly significant provisions dealing with accounting for costs of credit programs and general revenue transfers to the highway trust fund. While these provisions are technical and arcane, they could have a significant impact on legislation if they are adopted.

April 7, 2014

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's budget would substantially reduce deficits and debt over ten years, but one remaining question is what the budget would look like over the long term. The same day the budget was released, CBO produced an analysis of the budget that runs through 2040.

April 4, 2014

Update: The House passed the Pro-Growth Budgeting Act by a 224-182 vote. Also, CBO posted a letter to Chairman Paul Ryan examining the feasibility of conducting the analyses required by some of the proposed amendments to the Pro-Growth Budgeting Act.

April 4, 2014

The Senate Finance Committee met yesterday to consider the fate of the 50-plus tax breaks that expired last year known as "tax extenders." Unfortunately, they chose to extend almost all of them for two years by adding the costs of the tax cuts to the national debt.

April 3, 2014

Much of the focus in House Budget Committee chair Paul Ryan's (R-WI) budget inevitably falls on the changes it it would make to mandatory spending, of which there are many. However, much of the budget's deficit reduction comes through further cuts (beyond the sequester currently in place) to non-defense discretionary spending.

April 2, 2014

One of the recurring themes of recent budget debates has been partisan differences over the appropriate level of revenues, with Republicans rejecting any increased revenue proposed by Democrats in budget negotiations. But in separate releases yesterday, Senate Democrats proposed reducing revenues below the levels proposed by House Republicans. While this may seem like an April Fool’s joke, the numbers don’t lie. 

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