Steve Rattner, Morning Joe's economic analyst, uses one of our graphs and cites our cost estimate for ACA repeal.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said earlier this month that repealing President Barack Obama's signature health insurance law in its entirety would cost roughly $350 billion over the next decade. Republicans say a good Obamacare replacement strategy would reduce government spending, but they have not agreed on a consensus plan.
The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said a full Obamacare repeal could cost $350 billion over the next 10 years.
The Affordable Care Act raises large amounts of money, which means repealing it has revenue implications. The 10-year tax-revenue losses and added health costs are estimated to total about $1.9 trillion. A full repeal would add about $250 billion to the deficit over the decade. Repealing Obamacare could actually cause the deficit to widen somewhat, not narrow.
Note: For this column, I referenced studies by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Milken Institute School of Public Health/the Commonwealth Fund, the Urban Institute, and the Federation of American Hospitals/the American Hospital Association.
What happened on Wednesday night, explained Ed Lorenzen of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, was about process. The budget measure passed by the Senate needed 51 votes, which it got. Tacking on amendments would have meant it needed 60 votes. For Republicans who wanted to move their bill, that wasn’t an attractive option. They control only 52 seats.
"People have misinterpreted this exemption to conclude that CBO wouldn't provide a cost estimate for ACA legislation at all," said Ed Lorenzen, a senior advisor to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and a former senior aide to House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland. "But the exemption only applies to the new requirement for additional information regarding long-term costs in CBO estimates of legislation."
The Tea Party movement, of which I have been an active part since its founding in 2009, all but abandoned its defense of fiscal soundness during the general campaign in 2016. Tea Party Patriots, the nation’s preeminent coalition of Tea Party members and groups, and many other conservative watchdogs said nothing about Trump’s calamitous economic plan. This despite the fact the new president’s plan could add up to $20 trillion to our nation’s debt, according to a recent study by Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Its report revealed that our nation’s federal debt would soar to $39.5 trillion by 2026, double the current debt.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said earlier this month that repealing President Barack Obama's signature health insurance law in its entirety would cost roughly $350 billion over the next decade. Republicans say a good Obama care replacement strategy would reduce government spending, but they have not agreed on a consensus plan.
More to the point, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated last week that partial repeal would increase the number of uninsured Americans by 23 million (other estimates are even higher). If you think blowback to the ACA's enactment was bad for Democrats, just wait for the anti-GOP firestorm that follows that sort of disruption.
At the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, they put out a report last week that said repeal of Obamacare without a replacement would leave 23 million Americans uninsured while it would actually cost the federal government $350 billion over a decade. That amount drops to $150 billion if the always-controversial dynamic scoring method is used. That approach attempts to estimate increased economic activity over the next 10 years due to changes in taxes and spending.
Scrapping the Affordable Care Act, it turns out, would be a fiscal loser overall because of the taxes it imposed and the Medicare savings it implemented. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget recently reported that a full repeal would add between $150 billion and $350 billion to the debt over the next 10 years.
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Trump actually was ratcheting back from the projections he put forth during the campaign. In those days he projected savings for Medicare of $300 billion a year. That was implausible to say the least, observed the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which otherwise is gung ho for any budget savings; the reason was that Medicare drug spending runs only at about $100 billion a year, total.
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Repealing Obamacare is estimated to increase the budget deficit of the new government as much as $350 billion in the next 10 years, according to Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget report last week.
The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the spending increases and tax cuts he wants would fatten total deficits by $5.2 trillion by 2026. "That would lead directly to an $800 billion increase in interest costs over a decade, including over $150 billion in (fiscal year) 2026 alone," it predicts.
The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the spending increases and tax cuts he wants would fatten total deficits by $5.2 trillion by 2026. “That would lead directly to an $800 billion increase in interest costs over a decade, including over $150 billion in (fiscal year) 2026 alone,” it predicts.
The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that repealing ACA will increase the deficit by $350 billion over the next 10 years. That is right: $350 billion.
“Reconciliation legislation is considered under special expedited procedures and should be used to enact the tough choices necessary to reduce the debt trajectory, not to make tax and spending giveaways even easier to deliver,” said Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Budget. “Senator Baldwin’s amendment would help ensure reconciliation is part of more responsible budgeting – something we particularly need now when the debt is so high relative to the economy.”
If the ACA is repealed, it will cost the economy about $350 billion over the next 10 years, according to a recent Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget report, and it would leave no revenue left over for a replacement plan.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that, “A full repeal of the ACA would cost $350 billion through 2027 under conventional scoring and $150 billion under dynamic scoring.” Attempts to replace the ACA at some point would run into money trouble since “Repealing the entire ACA would leave no funds available for ‘replace’ legislation, and in fact would require further deficit reduction to avoid adding to the debt.”
All of the tax cuts mooted by Trump and Republican leaders, along with planned infrastructure spending, are going to cost money. A pre-election analysis by the Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget found Trump's plans would increase the ratio of public debt to GDP to 105 percent by 2026, compared with its current path of 86 percent.
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More retirees and longer lifespans are an ominous problem for a program whose costs are already notorious for outstripping projections. In terms of the overall national debt, the Committee for a Responsible Budget (co-chaired by Republican budget hawk Mitch Daniels) noted in 2015 that “To put the debt on a downward path to reach its historical average by 2040, productivity would need to be three times as high as projected. In other words, for growth alone to solve the debt, the country would need sustained annual productivity growth between 2.5 and 4 percent. By comparison, the historical record for any 25-year period since 1950 is 1.9 percent.” None of that means that the entitlement crisis will grow so dire so soon that Trump will need to address it rather than one of his successors, but it almost certainly means that growth won’t be enough.
About the economy: The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that repealing Obamacare could cost up to $350 billion through 2027. That's not chump change. All the more reason to carefully create a more flexible and frugal plan that delivers better coverage before scuttling the old law.
That needs to change. Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and I recently proposed a way to do that. We recommend creating a statutory long-term budget for major entitlements—and the revenues to finance these programs—as a central part of the federal budget process. We would also include tax expenditures, such as the mortgage interest deduction and special credits that benefit specific groups and are largely outside the regular budget process.
However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that repealing the ACA would increase federal budget deficits by $350 billion over a ten year period. A more recent estimate by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget mirrored what the CBO found — $350 billion over 10 years.
For example, earlier this year, the Republican-majority House passed a budget blueprint calling for deficit reductions of $7 trillion over the next 10 years-primarily through spending cuts.
Against that blueprint, we have Trump's proposed policy changes. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates those changes, in particular tax cuts, could increase the deficit by $5.3 trillion over the next decade.
Interest costs - arguably our least productive spending - promise to become the fastest-growing item in the budget. That's if deficits remain on the trajectory established by existing policies. In reality, though, they are likely to get even bigger, as a result of Donald Trump's expensive agenda. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the spending increases and tax cuts he wants would fatten total deficits by $5.2 trillion by 2026.
An analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put the loss of revenue from repealing PPACA’s taxes at $800 billion over 10 years. It said that approximately half of that would come from removing the 0.9% Medicare payroll surtax on wages above $200,000 ($150 billion) and the 3.8% surtax on investment income above the same threshold ($250 billion). Another quarter of the revenue loss would result from repealing various fees on insurance companies, medical-device companies, and drug manufacturers.
He said it is important to repeal the plan, despite a new report from the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, that claims it will cost $350 billion to do so. "Obamacare is not working for people," Duffy said.