The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Mr Trump’s plans would add $5.3 trillion to the US national debt.
Adding to the uncertainty for the Fed and calling its further rate path into question is the lack of detail in Trump's economic plans. He has proposed giving states more discretion in spending federal money on health insurance for the poor, but offered little specifics. Trump has also promised cuts in individual and business tax rates, but some economists questioned the assumptions underpinning the plan and a lack of clarity as to how the breaks would be funded.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget said this has made it difficult to evaluate Trump's proposals, but estimated they could add $5.3 trillion to the federal debt over 10 years.
An analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Mr. Trump’s plans would increase the federal debt by $5.3 trillion over the next decade, and raise the ratio of debt to gross domestic product to 105 percent.
Trump's proposals — which include an unprecedented $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan over 10 years and trillions more in tax cuts — would grow the debt far more than under current law, as this chart from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget shows.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a Washington, D.C.-based bipartisan policy group that examines fiscal and budget issues, said Trump’s plans as outlined in his campaign platform could double the U.S.’s budget deficit to 5% of GDP per year. This could add $5 trillion to the debt in the next 10 years.
Trump has promised to lower taxes by $4.4 trillion over 10 years and vowed to cut regulations on companies. He also said he would create 25 million jobs. Some critics claim Trump's plan would benefit only the wealthy and harm the middle class. The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget put his plan's price tag as high as $6 trillion over 10 years.
The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that under Trump’s economic agenda, U.S. government debt held by the public would reach about 150 percent of gross domestic product by 2036, nearly double the current ratio.
Trump, the 70-year-old real estate magnate and president-elect, has made pledges including cutting taxes and spending as much as $500 billion on infrastructure. His proposals would boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion, the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated.
During the campaign, Trump’s tax plan stirred concern that it would result in deficits and add as much as $5.3 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade, according to an estimate by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Trump has proposed no net spending reductions to offset his tax plan's $7 trillion increase in the debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's estimates.
And let’s not forget that Trump’s economic policies amount to a massive fiscal stimulus since they would add to the national debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This could be a much-needed boost to the economy, as tax cuts and infrastructure spending lift GDP growth.
She previously proposed spending $350 billion over 10 years for the plan and has moved that estimate up to $500 billion, in part by cutting tax deductions for high-income Americans. She said the proposal would not add any money to the national debt...The plan does say it will be funded by closing loopholes. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit organization, has found that the plan could be funded this way.
“One of the really discouraging things is that – at a time when our tax code desperately needs to be reformed – I don’t think we’ve had any real, credible tax reform plans put forward” -- Maya MacGuineas
Trump made pledges including cutting taxes and spending as much as $500 billion on infrastructure. His proposals would boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion, the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated. The government’s marketable debt has already more than doubled under Obama, to a record of almost $14 trillion.
Trump: He would ask Congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act, including the individual mandate requiring everyone to have health insurance; allow insurance companies to sell health insurance across state lines; and allow people to deduct the cost of their premiums from their taxes...The Center for Health and Economy estimated 18 million more people would be uninsured, while the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated it at 21 million. But premiums would fall. Trump would allow importation of drugs from foreign countries.
Mr Trump and Mrs Clinton have made expensive promises that mean neither would reverse the growth of the US’s nearly $20tn national debt (including future social security payments), according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that in 10 years, Trump would enlarge the deficit by $5.3 trillion and Clinton by far less, $200 billion. That translates to a national debt of 105 percent of GDP under Trump and 86 percent under Clinton (which is the level already expected under current law). Now, it’s 77 percent.
Maya MacGuineas is the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The group is non-partisan, meaning it stays away from party politics. MacGuineas says whoever wins the presidency will have a difficult time keeping campaign promises. “Donald Trump, for instance, has promised not to fix entitlement programs -- Medicare and Social Security. Hillary Clinton has promised not to raise taxes on any family making below $250,000. Well that sounds nice, but if you want to spend as much as she wants to, you can’t fix this problem from just taxing the rich alone.”
Similarly, Trump would need Congress to pass his massive tax cuts. Even if a Republican-leaning Senate and House were to approve Trump’s budget – far from given – it would take years for the nation’s precarious finances to scare off investors. These would expand the federal debt by $5.3 trillion, according to the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
On tax, Trump would slash rates for high earners and businesses and kill the inheritance tax. He argues this would unleash "tremendous" investment and growth to the benefit of all. Not so, says the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and other sources of reputable economic analysis. The Committee calculates Trump's plan would slash tax revenues but fail to cut government spending. Thus federal debt would increase to US$5.7 trillion by 2026, an increase equal to one-fifth of annual national income.
In contrast, Clinton's plans would increase taxes on high earners and reduce them on middle and lower classes. The committee calculates her new taxes would raise almost as much money as she is committing in new spending, leaving federal debt only $200 billion higher.
Proposals from Democratic nominee Clinton include a $275 billion infrastructure plan that she intends to pay for through corporate tax-law changes. She’s also suggested tax increases for the wealthy. The plans would inflate the debt by $200 billion over a decade, according to analysis from the non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Trump, the Republican candidate, has made pledges including cutting taxes and spending as much as $500 billion on infrastructure. The proposals would boost the debt by $5.3 trillion, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates.
Neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump has articulated a plan that will actually grow the economy. Clinton will jack up taxes and spending on everything, a sure-fire way to keep the economy puttering along. Trump will add $5 trillion-plus dollars to the national debt, which will also dampen growth. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, under Clinton's scenario, national debt held by the public will grow from 77 percent of GDP to 86 percent over the next decade. Under Trump's, it will increase to 105 percent. Robust economic growth is unlikely, to say the least, under such plans.
Trump talks a lot about the evils of budget deficits and debt, but independent analysts have found that his plans would put the United States much deeper in the red than Clinton’s, although neither candidate supports the kind of cuts to Medicare and Social Security that would significantly reduce America's debt. The fiscal hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget did find that Clinton’s plans would reduce projected increases in the debt by $500 billion over 20 years, because her high-end tax hikes would pay for her new spending. They found that Trump’s plans would add $16 trillion to those projections, because his tax cuts and military spending are not paid for.
The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Clinton’s plan would increase spending by $1.65 trillion over a decade, mostly for college education, paid family leave, infrastructure and health-related expenditures. Her plan would raise the national debt by $200 billion.
—"I don't add a penny to the national debt."-- Hillary Clinton
THE FACTS: Not true, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. It estimates her increased spending in areas such as infrastructure, more financial aid for college and early childhood education, would increase the national debt by $200 billion over 10 years. That is far less than their estimate for Trump, who they predict would add $5.3 trillion over 10 years. But it's plenty more than a penny.
A gaggle of centrist groups exists — No Labels, Third Way, the Bipartisan Policy Center, the Centrist Project, Ripon Society, conservative Reform Network, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, New America, Represent.us, Democrats for Education Reform. These groups have lots of good reform policy ideas on everything from entitlements, health care and immigration to campaign finance and elections.
According to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, “Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are both advocating policies that would drive the federal budget off a cliff.”
As Election Day nears, markets are on edge, as there is increasing uncertainty about Tuesday’s results...Furthermore, both candidates are proposing policies that continue increasing the government’s debt beyond $20 trillion, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Investors fear a Trump victory would be a disaster not only for the US economy but that his often vague policy prescriptions – described by the conservative Economist magazine as a “shambles” – pose a clear and present danger to the wider world economy. In domestic terms, his proposal to massively cut taxes, with most of the benefits flowing to the highest income earners, would cost the US Budget up to $US3.9 trillion over the next decade. Combined with spending increases in areas such as Defence, the US Budget deficit would balloon from 77 per cent of GDP to 105 per cent of GDP by 2026, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.