All indications are House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) will cut a deal with Democrats over House conservatives' objections to get a two-month budget passed. The last thing he wants is a shutdown on his hands a month before an election where Republicans' control of Congress could be up for grabs. "Nobody wants to see this get dragged out," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
In a speech at the Union League of Philadelphia on Sept. 7, Trump outlined a number of proposed spending increases to “rebuild our military,” which he said has become “depleted” due to the defense cuts in the sequester.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates it would cost $450 billion over 10 years to repeal the defense sequester cuts — as Trump said he would ask Congress to do. Trump said that he would also ask Congress to fully offset that cost, and he highlighted several places where he could increase revenues or cut spending. Trump said he would reduce improper government payments “estimated to exceed $135 billion per year” and the amount of unpaid taxes “estimated to be as high as $385 billion a year.” CRFB warns, however, that even with “extraordinarily aggressive effort to close the tax gap and reduce improper payments,” the best the government could hope for would be savings of $100 billion over a decade.
The trouble with Trump's debt position, though, is that his own proposals, according to virtually every analysis that's been done of his plans should he become president, would increase U.S. debt dramatically. Among the analyses: the left-leaning Brookings Institution figures debt to increase by $10 trillion, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget puts the figure at $11.5 trillion, and Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said a $11 trillion Trump increase would accompany a "lengthy recession."
In viewing Obamacare as an abomination, Trump’s replacement plan allows individuals to buy health insurance across any state. Right now, the current ACA only allows for individuals to purchase plans created for their own states. Trump’s plan would eliminate that provision. However, if Trump is successful in repealing Obamacare, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates around 22 million people would lose their healthcare coverage – but only around a million would then use Trump’s plan to purchase health insurance
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonprofit group that favors measures to keep the debt down, concluded in a paper published last week that, because of the rising debt, the U.S. "has significantly reduced borrowing capacity for the next major war, recession or other national crisis."
Donald Trump’s new plan to increase defense spending has a hole at least $150 billion wide, budget experts say. Even if Trump implements his money-saving ideas and convinces foreign governments to cough up more to cover U.S. defense outlays, the proposal still barely covers two-thirds of its estimated cost, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has calculated. "Any further increase in the deficit is a move in the wrong direction," the group said about the Trump budget projections. "Ultimately, much more will need to be done to pay for his plan and begin putting the debt on a more sustainable long-term path."
Making college and career training affordable does cost money. The plan’s $500 billion price tag over 10 years could be paid for by closing loopholes for high-income taxpayers and small businesses, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
On Wednesday, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump railed against an arbitrary cap on spending that Congress set as a compromise in early 2013. But analysts have already warned that his ideas to cover the increase won’t cut it. The Committee for a Responsible Budget, a conservative deficit hawk group, estimated that it would cost $450 billion through 2026 to lift the defense sequestration’s caps. Yet Trump’s proposals to pay for that amount would cover less than two-thirds of it, still costing the country $150 billion.
So, who’s up for an economic recession? And when the next recession happens, who’s up for adding more debt to the existing pool of government red ink? Those are the questions underpinning a recent white paper by the anti-deficit Committee for Responsible Federal Budget that points that both the fiscal and monetary toolboxes are likely to be much smaller when the next downturn occurs. “Since 1970, there has been a recession every 5 ½ years on average. Though it is impossible to predict the timing of the next recession, the fact that one has not occurred in the last 7 years suggests one is likely on the horizon,” the CRFB said.
This year, Trump has steadfastly opposed Social Security cuts, breaking from his party's leaders. Clinton, who faced pressure from Democratic primary rival Bernie Sanders, proposes higher benefits for widows and workers who took time off to take care of a family member. "This is just a dramatic shift—to have the Republican nominee saying we're not going to touch the program," said Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that supports entitlement spending cuts. "And on the Democratic side, to have moved where we're talking about expanding the system, which would of course worsen any shortfall."
"It's troubling for those of us who care about fixing the problem," MacGuineas said.