Trump and Biden: Tax and Spending Changes

In a recent analysis, we estimated that former President Donald Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his four-year term in office ($4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief), while President Joe Biden has approved $4.3 trillion so far during his three years and five months in office ($2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan). Both presidents approved a combination of tax cuts, tax increases, spending cuts, and spending increases – but in very different proportions.

In this piece, we show that Presidents Trump and Biden both approved substantial net spending increases, while President Trump also approved substantial net tax cuts. Our analysis divides each piece of legislation and executive action into its tax and spending components.¹ We find:

• President Trump approved $5.3 trillion of gross primary (non-interest) spending increases over ten years ($2.5 trillion non-COVID), partially offset by roughly $500 billion of primary spending cuts, for a net primary spending increase of $4.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion non-COVID).
• President Biden approved $5.7 trillion of gross primary spending increases over ten years ($3.9 trillion non-COVID), along with $1.9 trillion of primary spending cuts ($1.8 trillion non-COVID), for a net primary spending increase of $3.8 trillion ($2.0 trillion non-COVID).
• President Trump approved $2.9 trillion of gross tax cuts over ten years ($2.4 trillion non-COVID), along with $400 billion of tax increases, for a net tax cut of $2.5 trillion ($2.0 trillion non-COVID).
• President Biden approved almost $600 billion of gross tax cuts ($400 billion non-COVID) and nearly $600 billion of tax increases ($500 billion non-COVID) for little change in taxes.
• As a result of these changes, President Trump increased ten-year interest costs by about $1 trillion ($800 billion non-COVID), while President Biden increased ten-year interest costs by just under $500 billion ($300 billion non-COVID).

Importantly, the exact breakdown of these figures is sensitive to choices over how to classify each specific policy and could differ under alternative methodologies.²

Legislation and executive actions approved by President Trump significantly increased primary spending and cut taxes on net, while policies approved by President Biden mostly increased primary spending on net. Specifically, President Trump approved nearly $4.9 trillion of net primary spending increases over ten years, as well as $2.5 trillion in tax cuts. President Biden approved $3.8 trillion in net primary spending increases, with approved tax increases roughly matching approved tax cuts, resulting in little net change in taxes.

Trump and Biden: Tax and Spending Changes (Ten-Year Impact)
Gross Primary Spending Increase	$5.3 trillion	$5.7 trillion
Primary Spending Cuts	-$0.5 trillion	-$1.9 trillion
Net Primary Spending Increase	$4.9 trillion	$3.8 trillion
Gross Tax Cuts	$2.9 trillion	$0.6 trillion
Tax Increases	-$0.4 trillion	-$0.6 trillion
Net Tax Cuts	$2.5 trillion	$0
Interest Costs	$1 trillion	$0.5 trillion
Total Deficit Impact	$8.4 trillion	$4.3 trillion

Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding
Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation

Both presidents approved a substantial amount of gross primary spending increases and spending cuts, with President Biden approving more of both.

President Trump approved $5.3 trillion of gross ten-year primary spending increases, with the largest parts coming from the Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019 as well as various COVID relief bills. Without the CARES Act and other COVID relief bills, President Trump approved $2.5 trillion in gross ten-year primary spending increases. He also approved nearly $500 billion of non-COVID primary spending reductions, mainly from the effective repeal of the individual insurance mandate in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), as well as extensions of various smaller savings, such as the mandatory sequester in the Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019.

President Biden approved $5.7 trillion of gross ten-year primary spending increases, with the largest parts coming from the American Rescue Plan, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the Honoring Our PACT Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the omnibus appropriations bills for Fiscal Years (FY) 2022 and 2023. Without the American Rescue Plan, President Biden approved $3.9 trillion in gross primary spending increases. He also approved nearly $1.9 trillion in primary spending reductions, with the vast majority coming from the spending caps included in the Fiscal Responsibility Act as well as Medicare drug savings enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

On the revenue side, Presidents Trump and Biden both approved tax cuts and revenue increases, with President Trump approving far more in tax cuts and President Biden approving somewhat more in tax increases.

President Trump approved nearly $2.9 trillion in tax cuts, with the majority coming from the TCJA. The rest came from repealing various Affordable Care Act taxes in the FY 2020 omnibus appropriations bill, tax breaks included in the CARES Act and other COVID relief bills, and various tax extenders packages. Not counting the tax cuts related to COVID relief, President Trump approved $2.4 trillion in tax cuts. He also approved about $400 billion of tax increases, which came overwhelmingly from tariffs on aluminum, steel, and other imports.

President Biden approved approximately $600 billion in tax cuts, mainly through energy tax credits included in the IRA and the expansion of those credits under his vehicle emissions rule – as well as some tax cuts included in the American Rescue Plan and the CHIPS and Science Act. Over $400 billion of these tax cuts were unrelated to COVID. Meanwhile, President Biden approved nearly $600 billion of tax increases – $500 billion outside of the American Rescue Plan – mostly from the IRA’s IRS funding, corporate book minimum tax, and corporate stock buyback tax.

As in our prior analysis, these figures are based on prospective estimates of policy changes. In reality, it is likely that tax cuts under the IRA, TCJA, and various COVID relief bills ended up costing more than their original scores.³

Of President Trump’s $4.9 trillion net primary spending increase, $4.7 trillion (97 percent) was from bipartisan legislation, while $1.1 trillion (45 percent) of his $2.5 trillion net tax cuts were from bipartisan legislation. Of President Biden’s $3.8 trillion net primary spending increase, $1.1 trillion (30 percent) was from bipartisan legislation, and he has approved about $25 billion of bipartisan net tax increases largely from the bipartisan infrastructure law.

As a result of the tax and spending changes approved by both candidates, interest on the debt will cost more than it otherwise would have. We estimate ten-year interest costs will be about $1 trillion higher as a result of changes approved by President Trump and $500 billion higher as a result of changes approved by President Biden. The higher interest costs result from both spending increases and tax cuts under President Trump and mainly from spending increases under President Biden.

In total, President Trump’s approved tax and spending policies added $8.4 trillion to the ten-year debt ($4.8 trillion non-COVID) while President Biden’s approved tax and spending policies added $4.3 trillion to the ten-year debt ($2.2 trillion non-COVID). Read Trump and Biden: The National Debt to learn more.

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1 This analysis aims to roughly divide approved legislation and executive actions between tax cuts, spending increases, tax increases, and spending cuts. In general, we define tax cuts as the revenue implications (but not outlay impact) of changes in tax policy. For simplicity, this analysis counts most actions that overwhelmingly affect one side of the ledger as entirely on the tax or spending side, and in some cases, it groups related policies together. Most significantly, the revenue-increasing and revenue-reducing parts of the TCJA are netted together and counted as a single tax cut and reform package (though spending cuts in TCJA are counted separately). In addition, the revenue increases resulting from increased IRS funding are netted against the funding itself. This analysis also groups indirect revenue or spending implications with the direct effects of a particular policy. A different analysis might result in a different breakdown of tax and spending changes. Estimates are based on the ten-year budgetary impact from scores before implementation. See Appendix III of Trump and Biden: The National Debt for more information on our general methodology .

2 See previous endnote.

3 See Trump and Biden: The National Debt for further discussion of scores of specific legislation.