The 12-Month Rolling Deficit Totals $2.1 Trillion in August 2024

From September 2023 through August 2024, the federal budget deficit totaled $2.1 trillion based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This is a nearly $500 billion increase from our previous analysis last month in which the 12-month rolling deficit was $1.6 trillion.

CBO estimates the federal government borrowed $381 billion in August 2024 compared to a surplus of $89 billion in August 2023 – this difference is due to $330 billion of deficit reduction from the Supreme Court's reversal of President Biden's previous student loan cancellation last year. CBO estimates that after adjusting for timing shifts and the student loan cancellation, the August 2024 deficit is $59 billion larger than August 2023. The $2.1 trillion rolling deficit in now larger than the $2.0 trillion deficit in Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 and more than double the $1.0 trillion deficit in FY 2022. As a share of the economy, the rolling deficit was 7.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

Compared to the previous 12-month period, total nominal spending is up 7.1 percent to $6.9 trillion (24.4 percent of GDP). Nominal revenue is up 0.5 percent compared to the previous 12-month period, to $4.9 trillion (17.2 percent of GDP).

As the effective deficit is projected to be $2 trillion for a second year, it is clear that revenue windfalls from 2022 are behind us. The gap between spending and revenues continues to add to our deteriorating fiscal situation. As we discussed in our analysis of CBO's June baseline, deficits are projected to total $1.9 trillion in FY 2024 and $2.9 trillion by FY 2034. Policymakers should take action and work together to reduce deficits and improve our overall fiscal outlook.