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The Hill | October 29, 2013
The recent budget showdown was both completely predictable and totally avoidable, as was the resulting damage to our economy and public confidence in our government. Not only did the shutdown and debt-ceiling standoff slow growth, waste money and inhibit basic governmental functions, but it distracted from the real issue: the long-term debt challenge facing our nation.
It is time for leaders to break the cycle of bouncing from crisis to crisis by taking three common-sense steps: Stop the madness, start talking and solve the problem.
Reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling was a good start in at least putting the madness on hold, and agreeing to establish a conference committee on the budget resolution will help facilitate a start of discussions. Our leaders must now find a way to make these discussions fruitful both in terms of slowing the growth of our debt and ending the practice of operating the world’s largest economy on a month-to-month basis.
We suggest deliberations should start by identifying areas of agreement. There seems to be broad-based support for reforming farm subsidies, modifying the federal worker retirement system and charging user fees that better reflect the actual costs of certain government programs. Savings in these areas could be used to soften the blow of the mindless sequestration over the next year or two and allow appropriators to fund defense and non-defense discretionary programs at more reasonable levels.
Trading across-the-board, temporary and anti-growth cuts for more targeted and permanent savings would represent an important step, but negotiators must resist the temptation to declare victory with such a “small ball” approach.
As Congressional Budget Office Director Doug Elmendorf recently warned, despite some improvements, “the fundamental federal budgetary challenge has hardly been addressed.” A budget conference that does not make progress in this area will not have lived up to its potential.
And progress could indeed be made if leaders start talking to each other instead of talking at each other. The two parties have been close to agreement in the past, and there is more potential for common ground than either side realizes.
Both sides have taken encouraging steps toward a principled compromise. The budget President Obama put forward earlier this year incorporated some tough choices and politically difficult compromises, including adopting a chained Consumer Price Index to measure inflation more accurately and achieving significant savings from Medicare. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) recently identified a number of areas of potential agreement in an op-ed, including means-testing Medicare premiums, modernizing Medicare cost-sharing rules and pursuing pro-growth tax reform.
Building from some of these policies and concepts, any responsible plan must have a few key elements. It should slow the rate of growth in federal healthcare spending by enacting structural reforms that improve incentives for all parties. It should eliminate unwarranted subsidies and low-priority spending while reducing fraud and improving the way we index the federal budget to inflation. It should protect and enhance important investments and support for low-income individuals. It should put in place a process that allows House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) to pursue comprehensive tax reform that cuts tax preferences to lower rates, promotes growth and reduces the deficit. Finally, it should find a way to reform Social Security on a separate track to make the program financially sound for future generations.
Savings from these policies should be used both to reduce the mindless cuts from sequestration and help to stabilize and reduce the debt as a share of the economy. A plan large enough to at least stabilize the debt could also be used to justify a permanent indexing of the debt limit, which would put an end to the repeated political brinksmanship by eliminating the need to pass debt-ceiling increases so long as the debt remains on a sustainable path.
Earlier this year, the two of us put forward a plan — built on the progress made in previous bipartisan negotiations — to achieve $2.5 trillion in savings, replacing the sequester with smarter, more gradual deficit reduction that would avoid disrupting a fragile economic recovery while putting the debt on a clear downward path relative to the economy over the next 10 years and beyond. Importantly, the plan would achieve this deficit reduction while respecting the principles and priorities of both parties. It called for significant savings from entitlement reforms, but with important protections for low-income and vulnerable populations. Likewise, it proposed additional revenues for deficit reduction, provided that those revenues be achieved through pro-growth tax reform and not higher marginal income rates.
The proposal we put forward is not our ideal plan, and it is certainly not the only plan. We also recognize that it may not be possible to reach a bipartisan agreement on a plan as aggressive as the one we put forward. But so far, we have done the easy stuff (raising taxes on the wealthy and calling for unspecified cuts in discretionary spending) and we’ve done the stupid stuff (across-the-board cuts under sequestration). Now it’s time to do the tough stuff and the smart stuff: reforming our entitlements and tax code.
Policymakers should seek to reach agreement on a framework that at a minimum stabilizes the debt as a share of GDP. Reaching such an agreement will require Democrats to accept some structural reforms of entitlements, and will require Republicans to use a portion of revenues that will result from simplifying the tax code for deficit reduction, instead of using all savings to reduce tax rates. But such an agreement is achievable.
It is going to take real political courage on both sides to come together to find common ground. The problem is real, the solutions are painful, and there is no easy way out. But there is room for a solution if both parties commit to stop the madness, start talking and solve the problem.
The Washington Post | October 25, 2013
The Post’s Oct. 20 editorial on the budget challenge [“A fiscal quid pro quo”] made important points but was way off-base on the issue of revenue. It suggested that a fair trade would be reductions to the “sequester” budget cuts in exchange for reforms to Medicare and Social Security and said that Democrats should not insist on additional revenue because that’s a non-starter with many Republicans. Democrats would make a serious mistake by following that advice.
Our country needs more revenue to help us get back on track. Citing Congressional Budget Office calculations, The Post said that “federal revenue as a share of [gross domestic product (GDP)] will hit 18.5 percent by 2023, near the upper-end of the postwar range.” That’s true, but the last five times our country had a balanced budget, revenue averaged 20 percent of GDP. The Bowles-Simpson plan, which The Post strongly endorsed, achieved revenue of 20.6 percent of GDP — not by raising tax rates but by broadening the tax base and lowering tax rates.
Tax reform should be part of any budget deal. Tax reform is necessary to unlock the full potential of our economy. The current tax system is not fair and damages U.S. competitiveness. A five-story building in the Cayman Islands claims to be home to more than 18,000 companies. Is it the most efficient building in the world? No! That and other tax scams cost our country more than $100 billion each year, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations has found.
If we don’t fix the revenue side of the equation at the same time as we repair Social Security and Medicare, it will never happen. To suggest, as The Post does, that Democrats should trade adjustments to the sequester for reforms to these programs assumes that the sequester affects only Democratic priorities. More than half of the $1.2 trillion in sequester cuts are to defense, long a Republican priority.
A fair trade would be modest additions to revenue as part of a balanced plan. A revenue increase of $300 billion to $400 billion over 10 years would amount to only 1 percent of the $37 trillion the federal government is expected to collect over that time. We can’t do 1 percent? Of course we can. And by reforming the tax code, we could do it without raising tax rates on a single American.
A similar $300 billion to $400 billion in savings out of Medicare and Medicaid would amount to about 3 percent of the $11 trillion the federal government is expected to spend on health care over that time. We can’t do 3 percent? Of course we can. And we must: Health spending is the fastest-growing part of the federal budget, projected to increase from 1 percent of GDP in 1971 to more than 12 percent of GDP in 2050. And the trustees of the Medicare system say it will be insolvent by 2026.
The Post was correct that adoption of a “chained CPI,” or consumer price index, system of measuring inflation should be part of any agreement. Most economists say that chained CPI, which accounts for behavioral changes people make when faced with increasing prices, is a more accurate way of measuring inflation. Going to chained CPI would raise revenue because our tax system is indexed for inflation, and it would cut spending because many programs, including Social Security, are indexed for inflation.
Federal spending has been cut by $900 billion in the Budget Control Act, by $1.2 trillion in the sequester and by more than $500 billion in the 2010 continuing resolution. That is spending cuts of $2.6 trillion, while only $600 billion in revenue has been added. That is hardly balanced.
To suggest that Democrats should give up on revenue because it’s a non-starter with many Republicans is like telling Republicans they should give up on entitlement reform because it is a non-starter with many Democrats. The truth is, both sides need to give a little ground on their must-haves for real progress to be made.
A mini-“grand bargain” would require all of these elements: changes to Social Security and Medicare to ensure their solvency for future generations; a modest increase in revenue so all parts of society participate in getting our country back on track; and changes to the sequester cuts that force nearly all of the deficit savings on less than 30 percent of the budget.
We can do this, but everyone must be prepared to give a little so that our nation can gain a lot.
zpolitics | October 17, 2013
As we finally emerge from what was simply the most recent in a long series of short-term fiscal crises, it is abundantly clear what our leaders in Washington should do to prevent themselves from governing on the edge of a cliff in the future: they must stop the madness of shutdowns and showdowns, start earnest bipartisan negotiations and solve the problem of our unsustainable national debt once and for all.
The just-concluded fiscal near-disaster proves that short-sighted political gamesmanship produces very few winners, and a whole bunch of losers. Worse still, such crises divert attention from the real issues that are driving our debt over the long term – namely our outdated tax code and our ever-more-costly entitlement programs.
The only thing our leaders in Washington won for themselves with this fiasco is more time – time that they must consider their last opportunity for finally confronting our national debt.
It’s undeniable that our debt is a huge – and growing – problem. Relative to the size of the economy, our debt is larger than it has been at any time since the immediate aftermath of World War II. And, even with shrinking deficits over the past couple of years, it is projected to start growing again, unchecked, to unprecedented levels. Such elevated debt levels have been associated with higher rates of interest, inflation and unemployment, not to mention slower economic growth and greater risk of a debt-fueled fiscal crisis.
Moreover, Americans understand that the national debt is problematic. In a recent poll we commissioned with prominent Democratic and Republican pollsters, a plurality of respondents said that the debt was the single most pressing issue Washington must tackle – more than jobs, immigration reform or health care.
The poll also showed that dealing with the debt in a comprehensive, gradual manner, Americans are willing to make personal sacrifices for the sake of long-term deficit reduction. When paired with cuts to wasteful and low-priority programs, enacting deficit-reducing reforms to our entitlement programs and revenue-enhancing reforms of our tax code are broadly popular. There are a variety of proposed common sense deficit-reducing provisions that could garner the political common ground.
That we must take on the true drivers of our debt – and that Americans understand this – is why the Campaign to Fix the Debt firmly believes that making tough choices to reduce the deficit is good politics in addition to good policy. Fix the Debt has enlisted hundreds of thousands of citizen-activists – including civic leaders, academic economists, small business leaders and corporate executives – to let Congress know that what their constituents want is the policy certainty and economic stability that a comprehensive deficit-reduction agreement would bring about.
The time for our elected leaders to be worrying about short-term political gains has long since passed – if it ever existed at all. Now, they must use this latest opportunity to stop all of the fruitless chicanery, start honest negotiations and solve our fiscal problems – before they get even worse than they were last week.
The Weekly Wonk | October 10, 2013
Last week, the government of the richest and most powerful nation in the world shut off its lights and closed its doors. As a result, 800,000 federal workers were immediately furloughed; new patients were turned away from NIH clinics; the national parks were closed to visitors; and economic growth is expected to slow by a quarter to a half percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2013.
This disruptive and completely unnecessary shutdown follows 7 months living under “sequestration,” an across-the-board cut to many of the important functions of government that followed the failure of the bipartisan Super Committee to reform the nation’s fiscal policy. And to make matters worse, we are only days away from reaching the nation’s legal debt limit which, if not raised, will require us to default on some of our obligations.
In the context of all this short-term turmoil, while officials are wrestling with whether the lights will be on and whether the nation’s bills will be paid next week, it may seem strange to want to talk about our long-term fiscal situation. But we have to – immediate issues and long-term challenges are intertwined. Until policymakers recognize the importance of addressing our long-term debt situation, it is difficult to see how we avoid jumping from short-term crisis to short-term crisis.
There is a dangerous and pervasive myth in Washington that our debt problems have been solved – that we no longer need to worry about growing entitlement costs. This myth leads many Democrats on the left to falsely assume any call for deficit reduction is a call for job-killing austerity, Republicans on the right to shift their focus away from entitlement reform to oil pipelines and medical device taxes, and policymakers to opt for mindless sequestration over strategic spending cuts, and government shutdowns over commonsense budget agreement.
It is true that we have made substantial progress in addressing our short- and medium-term debt. In combination with the economic recovery, a number of spending cuts and tax increases enacted over the past three years have helped to stabilize debt levels as a share of the economy for the next five years. Yet temporary stability does not suggest a permanent solution. Though growth has slowed, our debt levels are the highest as a share of the economy they have been since the aftermath of World War II. At roughly twice the historical average, our extraordinarily high debt levels put us at substantial risk if interest rates rise and leave little flexibility if new needs or emergencies arise.
More frightening, our debt levels are likely to begin growing again sooner rather than later. As health care costs continue to grow faster than the economy and the large baby-boom population enters retirement, the costs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will balloon and revenue simply won’t keep up.
The result: debt is projected to exceed the size of the economy by 2035, double the size of the economy in the 2060s, and triple it in the 2080s.
The myth that we no longer have a long-term debt problem is doing a disservice to the next generation of Americans who will ultimately pay the price in those coming decades for our inaction today.
A failure to address this growing debt will translate into stagnant wage growth, threaten the value of retirement accounts, raise interest rates on all types of loans, reduce the government’s ability to respond to new needs and emergencies, and increase the chance of an eventual crisis.
The progress we’ve made would reduce the chance of such a crisis, but not by nearly enough. As my old boss Erskine Bowles likes to explain, our leaders have done the easy stuff – raising taxes on the top 1 percent of Americans. They’ve done the sneaky stuff – capping defense and non-defense discretionary spending so future lawmakers can identify the specific cuts. They’ve even done the stupid stuff – allowing a deep, abrupt, across-the-board cut to all the programs not responsible for our growing debt through so-called “sequestration.”
But what our leaders haven’t done is the hard stuff – reform our tax code and entitlement programs. What our leaders haven’t done is worked together to reach principled compromise on a plan that neither side loves, but both know would be a win for the American people.
The solutions are relatively straightforward: bend the health care cost curve by improving the way we pay for medicine and changing incentives for providers and beneficiaries; make Social Security solvent by slowing the growth for wealthier beneficiaries, adjusting for growing life expectancy, and bringing in new revenue from those who can afford it; reform the tax code by cutting many of the $1.3 trillion of annual tax preferences and using the money to lower rates and deficits; and replacing the mindless cuts of sequestration with thoughtful cuts to wasteful and low-priority programs.
These solutions are not easy, to be sure. They require Democrats to take on their base and pursue entitlement reforms. They require Republicans to break their pledges and support new revenue. And they require both sides to put the next generation ahead of the next election.
But they are possible.
Despite the dysfunction in the halls of Congress, efforts to design and agree to these changes are already underway. The President’s budget took an important step by putting a number of entitlement changes into his budget, including the adopting of the chained CPI which would switch to a more accurate and slower inflation index for calculating Social Security COLAs, changes in the tax code, and various indexed provisions in the budget.. The relevant Committees in both Houses are taking another important step by looking at ways to reform and replace the so-called “sustainable growth rate” (SGR), which threated to cut Medicare physician payments by about 25 percent. And perhaps most encouragingly, Republican House Ways & Means Chairman Dave Camp and Democratic Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus are working together to enact the first comprehensive overhaul of our tax code in over a quarter century.
The true test will be whether these efforts can be joined and ultimately enacted into law. Every bipartisan effort to reduce the deficit – the Simpson-Bowles Commission, the Domenici-Rivlin Commission, the Boehner-Obama discussion – found that the best way to get a budget deal was through shared sacrifice. Everyone has to be part of the solution, and all policymakers has to be willing to put their own sacred cow on the table. The retirement age must be on the table. The mortgage-interest deduction must be on the table. The defense budget must be on the table. And payments to Medicare providers and beneficiaries must be on the table.
Congress has an opportunity to do right by the American people. But they have to stop the madness, start talking, and solve the problem. And they need to begin now.
New York Times | October 9, 2013
As we enter the second week of the government shutdown, one area of government waste has been clearly exposed: the time wasted by policy makers on finger-pointing and point-scoring, as opposed to finding real solutions.
There definitely is plenty of wasteful and overlapping spending in Washington -- and the sequester pushes policy makers to focus on where they can get savings. The Government Accountability Office has identified dozens of areas of duplication and overlap in the federal government, like that between the Agriculture Department and the Food and Drug Administration over catfish inspections. There's still much needed oversight that is lacking. But a government shutdown isn't the way to solve it.
There is still room to cut in areas like farm subsidies. Reforms to federal retirement and health benefit programs can also achieve savings. Privatize the Tennessee Valley Authority. Charge more to cover the cost of the national parks. The list goes on. We need to do all of these and more, but it's not where the real money is.
What we’ve learned from sequestration and the shutdown is that despite the significant economic disruption caused by these efforts in the near term, they have done little to reduce the long-term debt. Under realistic assumptions, public debt is expected to reach 100 percent of the economy by 2035 and will continue increasing.
The budget cuts so far have come from a small sliver of the federal budget and are poorly timed, coming as the economy struggles to recover. A smarter approach deals with all parts of the budget, including tax and entitlement reform, and is phased in over a longer term, allowing for more deficit reduction without stunting growth.
A much better investment is to start bipartisan discussions to comprehensively address our longer-term fiscal challenges.
The Hill | October 9, 2013
We are on a collision course with financial calamity. A first-time-ever failure to extend the federal debt limit would lead to higher interest rates not only for the U.S. government, but also for every business, home, car, student and personal loan in America. The looming debt ceiling — and the ongoing government shutdown — is causing harmful uncertainty around the world and here at home.
But there is a way out.
It’s right in front of us. Bipartisan proposals have been advanced to get America back on track. Whether it is Simpson-Bowles, Domenici-Rivlin or even where President Obama and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) left off their negotiations two years ago, there are common elements in all of these plans that could be implemented now to bring this crisis to a close.
Here are the common elements:
- Extend the debt limit for at least one year, preferably two, without condition. That aligns with Obama’s position that we not negotiate on the debt limit.
- Do the negotiating within the context of a continuing resolution to fund the government and end the shutdown.
- Agree to the Republican funding level of $988 billion for this fiscal year.
- Agree on a process for individual and corporate tax reform next year. The goal should be to reduce rates and raise additional revenue to go toward deficit reduction. A reasonable goal would be $300 billion to $400 billion in additional revenue over the next 10 years.
- Agree to additional savings in Medicare and other healthcare accounts by better coordinating care, especially of the chronically ill. A reasonable target would be $300 billion to $400 billion over the next 10 years.
- Take the savings from numbers 4 and 5 above and use them to cut in half the effects of the sequester.
- Adopt “chained CPI” as a more accurate measure of inflation that both reduces spending and raises revenue. The combined effect is a savings of about $250 billion over the next 10 years
- Repeal the medical device tax of 2.3 percent, about which no one seems enthusiastic.
- Name a commission to reform Social Security to ensure its long-term solvency. The longer we wait, the more draconian the solutions will have to be.
Of course, neither party would be completely happy with all of these proposals. However, it’s not really a “bargain” if neither side has to give up things on its wish list.
We can do this. We can end the shutdown, resolve our debt crisis and put America back on a more sustainable course for the future. Let’s do it!
Star Tribune | October 5, 2013
Here we are again, watching as our national leaders engage in another fiscal fistfight. Partisan rancor, sadly, is now hard-wired into our political system.
According to political analyst Charles Cook, out of 435 congressional districts, there are “only 17 Republicans sitting in districts Obama carried, and only nine Democrats sitting in districts Romney carried.” The number of so-called split-ticket districts was far higher when we served in Washington two decades ago. In the ensuing years, increasingly, “gerrymandered” districts created seats that are safe for one party. The result is a decreased likelihood that moderates will ever be elected — and that only exacerbates partisan behavior.
In this highly toxic environment, it is hard to see how any long-term consensus can be reached, especially on budget issues where the two parties are poles — and polls — apart. If we learned nothing else last week, it is that it’s no longer reasonable to expect members of Congress to be problem-solvers. The budget impasse is just act one in a drama that will be on stage for a long time to come.
A full-fledged debate over the appropriate role of government at the beginning of the 21st century is overdue. However, instead of a thoughtful discussion that explores legitimate ideological differences regarding the size and role of government, we hear only each side blaming the other. Republicans cry out for Obamacare’s demise (hint: Obama has a veto pen), while Democrats loudly decry every attempt by Republicans to cut spending (hint: there aren’t enough rich taxpayers to pay all our bills).
The need for balanced solutions is too important to leave to the partisans in Congress yet too urgent to ignore. One of the great strengths of our country is the balance of power shared by families, government, businesses and nonprofits, including the faith community. When one of these institutions is failing, we should look for leadership elsewhere. Business organizations can start by no longer echoing the Republicans’ no-new-taxes mantra. Instead, they can lead on comprehensive tax reform. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, has proposed a tax overhaul that would promote investment and reward people for working. Among other features, Lee offers a $2,500-per-child tax credit against either income or payroll taxes (Medicare and Social Security) owed by a working family. The proposal recognizes that those in Mitt Romney’s 47 percent still pay significant federal taxes even if they owe no income taxes. More than that, it recognizes that we can no longer pay lip service to the importance of strong families. We need to invest in the ability of families to succeed.
Lee’s proposal is far from perfect, but it’s a good start. The revenue calculations still are being done, but it’s likely that some taxes will be increased in order to reduce others. Some business leaders (particularly those active in the Fix the Debt campaign) have embraced tax reform principles similar to those embodied in the Lee plan. We need their strong voices and the voices of other businesspeople to lead the discussion. Otherwise, we are left to the context created by Grover Norquist and other antitax crusaders.
Similarly, let’s ask organized labor to step forward to propose new ways to address the spending side of the federal budget, starting with health care. Obamacare on its own doesn’t solve the health care crisis. It promotes broader access but offers little cost control. However, throwing it out without an alternative — as Republicans have tried to do — is the wrong approach. And, asking for an exemption, as unions have done, is also wrongheaded.
The groundwork for a labor-inspired health care solution might be in a statement four years ago issued jointly by the leaders of the Service Employees International Union and Wal-Mart, Inc. Their 2009 letter to President Obama made the case for expanding access, including an employer mandate that doesn’t act as a barrier to hiring entry-level workers. Significantly, the letter also argues for the importance of controlling health costs, rightly asserting that “health care reform without controlling costs is no reform at all.”
The encouraging news is that innovative public policies are emerging to address America’s critical challenges. But these ideas are primarily being developed and implemented by grass-roots organizations, nonprofits, faith communities, business and labor groups. In other words, outside of government.
Eventually, Washington will find its way. But in our view, when politicians finally get serious, the path will have been paved by other foundational institutions that are offering true leadership.