One of the first and most important priorities Congress should be agreeing to a budget resolution conference report that lays out a framework for pursuing priorities and addressing issues in a fiscally responsible manner before making major decisions on spending or revenues. We recommend that Congress move forward under regular order, while adhering to the following principles when crafting a budget resolution.
1.Put the Debt on a Downward Path
- Propose revenue and spending targets sufficient to put the debt on a downward path as a share of the economy over the medium- and long-term
- Make realistic and gimmick-free assumptions to achieve this goal
2.Responsibly Address Upcoming “Fiscal Speed Bumps”
- Recognize and address the need to raise the federal debt limit
- Include a plan to fully offset reforms to the Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR)
- Provide for a plan to make solvent the Highway Trust Fund
- Set achievable and responsible discretionary spending levels and offset any sequester relief with more permanent and thoughtful savings
- Responsibly address tax extenders, preferably through tax reform
3.Provide for Tax and Entitlement Reform, Using Reconciliation Where Appropriate
- Include significant and achievable savings targets to slow the growth of Medicare, Medicaid, and other entitlement programs, along with credible examples to achieve these savings and reconciliation instructions to facilitate deficit reduction
- Include language promoting Social Security reform designed to make the program as a whole solvent and avoid the pending insolvency of the SSDI program
- Call for pro-growth tax reform that is preferably revenue-generating and at least revenue-neutral relative to current law; and include mechanisms to provide for prompt action on tax reform
- Focus on the long term by prioritizing savings that grow over time and avoiding timing shifts that would result in higher deficits beyond the budget window
4.Strengthen Budget Enforcement
- Strengthen prohibitions of timing shifts, phony savings, and other budget gimmicks
- Tighten rules exempting Overseas Contingency Operations costs from budget limits
- Prohibit the passage of legislation that would increase deficits in the long term
An annotated version of this chartbook is available at Want to Understand the Tax Extenders? Here's a Few Charts.
Much more detail about the history, rationale, and cost of the extenders is available at our resource: Tax Break-Down: Tax Extenders
For more explanation of each of these charts, see the blog Everything You Need to Know About Budget Gimmicks, in 8 Charts
Note: This document was updated on February 12 to reflect CBO's newest projections for interest costs.
The Hill | January 14, 2014
By all accounts, 2014 is unlikely to be the year of the grand bargain…or anything close. Neither the President nor any of the political leadership is actively trying to fix the nation’s fiscal problem; there is no immediate crisis; and the issues of major entitlement reforms and revenues are hard enough that most politicians are quite happy to just look the other way.
That said, Congress has returned to DC to find many outstanding issues including the expiration of extended unemployment benefits, an impending 25 percent cut in Medicare payments to physicians, and the expiration of various targeted tax cuts known as “tax extenders”, all of which will create a number of important fiscal litmus tests.
These policies all come with a cost, and the question is; will congress find ways to pay for them or will they resort to their old habit of charging them to the national credit card?
One of the important achievements of the Ryan-Murray budget deal passed at the end of last year was that while it lessened the constricting caps of the sequester, it not only fully paid for the changes, it banked a little extra savings.
Congress should, at the very least, hold itself to the same standard for all of the mini-fiscal moments of 2014. One way to do this would be to pursue three bite-sized $150 billion packages focused on each of these policies.
Already, discussions are underway about an extension of unemployment insurance. Given the still weak condition of the economy, it makes sense to extend unemployment benefits and to consider doing a larger package to create jobs and spur the economy. A package could extend and reform unemployment benefits, along with other measures such as infrastructure investments, job training, or targeted tax breaks aimed at promoting job growth or investment.
One option to pay for this, would be to switch to chained CPI—a more accurate way of measuring inflation—and use $150 billion of the non-Social Security portion of the savings to pay for the growth package and some deficit reduction. (The additional savings that would come from the Social Security program should be used to help shore up the program and provide enhancements to low income beneficiaries.) Such a deal would have the multiple benefits of helping the economy, the fiscal situation, and, separately, Social Security.
A second $150 billion package could pay for fixing the impending 25 percent cut in doctors’ payments, or the unsustainable “Sustainable Growth Rate” (SGR). The Congressional health committees have put forward packages which would replace the SGR with a formula that promotes quality over quantity of care and encourages participation in coordinated care models. What they have not done? Proposed how to pay for it.
Congress could pay for these reforms with a $150 billion package of structural health reforms that help slow its cost growth. Such a package could include expanding new forms of cost-controls like bundled payments and readmission penalties; restricting supplemental health plans which lead to the overconsumption of health care; reforming overly-complicated cost-sharing rules; increasing the use of generic drugs; and expanding the means testing of Medicare premiums.
Finally, a third $150 billion package could pay for a one-year extension of the “tax extenders” which expired at the end of 2013, along with a permanent extension of the low-income support from the child tax credit and earned income tax credit scheduled to expire in 2017. One payfor option would be a plan developed by myself, Dan Feenberg and Martin Feldstein of Harvard University, where the amount of tax breaks any one individual can claim are limited to a certain dollar amount, or share of one’s income. It’s not comprehensive tax reform which we need, but it’s a step in the right direction.
These packages won’t be nearly enough to solve our debt problem – much more would need to be done. Still, enacting this series of incremental $150 billion packages would be consistent with the simple principle our lawmakers need to re-learn—if something is worth doing, it’s worth paying for.
Each of these three packages would save more money than they cost, particularly over the long-term. But none would be about simply making numbers add up, they’d be about improving the way we tax and spend to better promote growth, offer certainty, improve the health system, and moving us toward more responsible budgeting.