Budget Update

Report: Analysis of CBO’s January 2016 Budget and Economic Outlook

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its January Budget and Economic Outlook, today, adding more detail to a brief summary released on January 19. These budget projections show that the era of declining budget deficits is over, with deficits projected to rise by over $100 billion this year and exceed $1 trillion by 2022. CBO also projects the debt will continue to rise well above today’s record-high levels, growing unsustainably. The report shows:

  • The deficit will grow from $439 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) in 2015 – the lowest levels since 2007 – to $544 billion (2.9 percent of GDP) in 2016.
  • By 2026, deficits will double as a share of GDP to 4.9 percent and more than triple in dollar terms to $1.37 trillion.
  • CBO projects debt will rise by $10.7 trillion between 2015 and 2026, from $13.1 trillion (73.6 percent of GDP) to $23.8 trillion (86.1 percent of GDP). Previously, CBO projected debt rising to $21 trillion (77 percent of GDP) by 2025.
  • These projections are significantly worse than previous projections, with deficits $130 billion higher in 2016 and $1.55 trillion higher through 2025.
  • About half of the deterioration in the fiscal outlook is from legislative changes, mainly December’s unpaid-for tax extenders and omnibus legislation.
  • Although fiscal irresponsibility has worsened the budget outlook, the long-term driver of rising debt remains the rapid growth of entitlement spending and interest on the debt. CBO projects 83 percent of the $2.7 trillion spending rise between 2015 and 2026 is from Social Security, health care, and interest.
  • The budget outlook could be even worse than projected if lawmakers continue to pass legislation without truly offsetting its costs. For example, if lawmakers fully repeal (and don’t offset) future “sequester” cuts, continue various temporary tax breaks, and repeal the Affordable Care Act taxes delayed last December, debt would rise well beyond the projected $23.8 trillion (86 percent of GDP) by 2026, to $25.5 trillion (92 percent of GDP) in that year.

Last year, lawmakers took for granted temporarily declining deficits and added significant new borrowing. In part as a result, rising deficits have now returned, and the debt is on an even more unsustainable path than previously projected. Hopefully, the newest projections will serve as a wakeup call for serious action on spending and tax reform in order to put the debt to a downward, sustainable path.

Here, we have updated our January 19 analysis to also include information about the drivers of projected spending growth, CBO’s economic forecasts, and the drivers of the worsening fiscal outlook as compared to CBO’s August 2015 baseline.

Spending, Revenue, Deficits, and Debt

While deficits have declined considerably since their 2009 peak, that trend will reverse itself after 2015. The decline of deficits had been largely due to the economic recovery, continued low interest rates, and deficit reduction efforts. However, with borrowing on the rise, the era of declining deficits is now over, and trillion-dollar deficits will return by 2022.

Moreover, as a result of last year’s fiscally irresponsible legislation, a weaker economic outlook, and technical changes, deficits through 2025 are now expected to be $1.5 trillion higher than in CBO’s most recent projections from August.

According to CBO, the deficit will rise by more than $100 billion between 2015 and 2016 – nearly a quarter – and continue to rise every year thereafter. Specifically, the deficit is expected to rise from $439 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) in 2015 to $544 billion (2.9 percent of GDP) in 2016, $1.04 trillion (4.4 percent of GDP) in 2022, and $1.37 trillion (4.9 percent of GDP) in 2026. Thought of another way, deficits will double as a share of GDP and triple in nominal dollars.

Outside of the Great Recession and its immediate aftermath, the 2026 deficit will be the highest ever in nominal dollars and the third-highest deficit as a share of GDP since World War II.

CBO projects debt held by the public will also rise dramatically, from $13.1 trillion at the end of 2015 to $17.8 trillion by the end of 2021 and $23.8 trillion by the end of 2026 – a $10.7 trillion increase. As a share of the economy, debt will rise from below 74 percent of GDP in 2015 – more than twice what it was in 2007 – to almost 79 percent by 2021 and 86 percent by 2026. Debt would therefore reach more than twice its 50-year historical average of less than 40 percent and be significantly higher than at any point in history other than around World War II.

Underlying the increases in debt are higher spending and stagnant revenue projections. CBO estimates spending will grow from 20.7 percent of GDP in 2015 to 23.1 percent of GDP in 2026, much higher than the historical average of 20.2 percent. This spending growth is largely the result of an aging population, rising health care costs, and rising interest rates.

Based on CBO projections, Social Security, federal health care spending, and net interest are responsible for 83 percent of the $2.7 trillion growth in annual spending between 2015 and 2026. Social Security and health care by themselves represent about three fifths of this growth, while interest on the debt is responsible for over one fifth. This means that growth in all other areas of the government – including defense spending, welfare, food stamps, education, federal employment, farm subsidies, foreign aid, and others – are only responsible for less than a fifth of the nominal growth in spending.

As a share of GDP, this trend is even more pronounced, with Social Security, health spending, and interest responsible for far more than the entirety of the spending increase. Specifically, while total spending will grow by 2.4 percent of GDP between 2015 and 2026, Social Security will grow by 0.9 percent of GDP, health spending by 1.4 percent of GDP, and interest – the fastest growing part of the budget – will grow by 1.7 percent of GDP. All other spending will actually shrink as a share of the economy by a combined 1.6 percent of GDP.

Revenue, meanwhile, will remain virtually flat as a share of the economy over the next decade at around its current level of 18.2 percent of GDP. While individual income tax revenue will rise from 8.7 percent of GDP in 2015 to 9.6 percent by 2026, other sources of revenue will fall by an equal amount. Overall, revenue will remain modestly above the 50-year historical average of 17.4 percent of GDP.

Compared to the most recent baseline update in August 2015, the budget outlook is significantly worse in both nominal dollars and as a share of the economy. For example, debt in 2025 is projected to reach $22.4 trillion or 84.3 percent of GDP under current projections, compared to $21 trillion and 76.9 percent of GDP in CBO’s August projections.

Importantly, these projections are based on CBO’s current law baseline, which assumes Congress and the President do not continue to enact deficit-financed tax and spending packages like they have in recent years and did so especially in 2015. Were Congress to cancel future spending reductions from “sequestration,” continue those temporary tax breaks not made permanent in the recent extenders package, and permanently repeal the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) taxes delayed in the recent package, an additional $1.7 trillion would be added to the debt by 2026. As a result, debt would rise from 74 percent of GDP last year to 92 percent by 2026.

Economic Projections1

In addition to updated budget projections, today’s report also includes CBO’s latest economic projections, which similarly show a gloomier picture than their previous estimates. In turn, the lower projections increase cumulative deficit projections through 2025 by $437 billion. Economic growth will be lower than previously projected, but so will unemployment and inflation.

Although these projections do not incorporate the very latest data, CBO generally projects the pace of the economic recovery to be moderately healthy this year and next but to slow over the next few years. Thereafter, the economy will grow at a relatively slow and steady pace.

CBO estimates real economic growth of 2.3 percent in 2016, 2.6 percent in 2017, and an average of 2.1 percent over ten years. By 2023, CBO projects an annual growth rate of 2.0 percent, which is about 0.1 percent lower than in prior projections. With this change in economic growth and other changes in inflation, nominal GDP is projected to be 2.7 percent smaller in 2025 than projected in August.

Meanwhile, CBO projects the unemployment rate to continue its rapid fall in 2016 and 2017 bottoming out at 4.4 percent, notably lower than the 5 percent bottom predicted as recently as last August, though higher than its potential. By 2020, CBO assumes unemployment will return to just above its natural rate over the business cycle – at 5.0 percent – rather than the 5.3 percent level projected in August.

For inflation, CBO estimates the price index for personal consumption expenditures – which grew only 0.5 percent in 2015 – to grow by 0.9 percent in 2016 and by 2.0 percent per year from 2018 onward.

Finally, interest rates will begin to rise once again after the Federal Reserve announced in December that they would start raising the targeted federal funds rate, but they will do so at a slower pace than previously projected. CBO projects rates on three-month and ten-year Treasuries to rise from 0.1 and 2.2 percent, respectively, in 2015, to 3.2 and 4.1 percent in 2020 and throughout the rest of the ten-year window. This is lower than in previous projections; for example, in August, CBO projected the ten-year rate to reach 4.3 percent.

The report’s economic estimates were completed late last year and exclude some positive economic reports that were published since December, as well as the enactment of a year-end bill setting discretionary spending and continuing many expired tax breaks. If these economic effects were included, GDP would likely be slightly larger in the near-term, while long-term economic growth might be very slightly slower.

Changes in the Budget Projections

CBO’s latest budget projections are significantly worse than prior estimates. Ten-year deficit projections are now $9.38 trillion, nearly $2.4 trillion higher than in CBO’s August report. Perhaps more meaningful is the change in projections over a fixed budget window. From 2016 through 2025, deficits are projected to be $1.55 trillion higher than in CBO’s August projections as a result of $1.23 trillion less in revenue and nearly $325 billion more in spending.

About half of this deterioration – roughly $750 billion – is the result of legislative changes. In particular, the tax extenders package added $680 billion to deficits – before interest – through reduced revenue and increased spending on refundable tax credits. Discretionary spending increases enacted in the Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) and omnibus appropriations bills added more than $105 billion to spending. In addition, the defense authorization’s reforms to the military retirement system will add $30 billion to spending, though they are expected to reduce spending over the long term. Other legislative changes – including changes in spending on overseas contingency operations and offsets from the BBA and the highway bill – reduced CBO baseline deficits by about $205 billion, though most of this change is due to gimmicks and baseline quirks.2  All of these changes come on top of a permanent and largely unpaid for “Doc Fix” bill, passed in April, which added roughly $160 billion to the debt but was incorporated into the August baseline.

Changes in economic projections are also responsible for a large share of the deterioration in the deficits – more than $435 billion through 2025. With GDP growth about 0.1 percent slower per year and inflation slightly slower during the next two years, CBO now projects about $770 billion less in revenue. Partially offsetting this loss is about $335 billion less in spending. Nearly $230 billion of this is the result of lower projected interest rates, while the remainder largely stems from lower health care payment updates, lower unemployment benefits, and lower cost-of-living adjustments.

Finally, CBO estimates that technical changes will raise ten-year deficits by about $365 billion, primarily due to increasing outlays. Most of the increased spending – $340 billion – comes from higher-than-expected enrollment in Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act and an expanded population of veterans who are eligible for veterans’ disability benefits.

Conclusion

In many ways, CBO’s latest projections confirm what should have been expected at the end of 2015: ignoring fiscal responsibility in order to pass tax extenders and other policy preferences without paying for them will drive up the debt. But due to economic changes and other factors, debt is now projected to rise even faster than the passage of irresponsible legislation alone would suggest.

Whereas prior projections suggested the debt would rise from just below post-war record-high levels of 74 percent of GDP last year to 77 percent by 2025, CBO now projects debt will grow to 86 percent of GDP by 2026 – and deficits will reach near their all-time record levels of $1.4 trillion in that year.

Such debt growth is ultimately unsustainable, and it could have serious economic consequences in the meanwhile. Moreover, the debt situation could be even worse if lawmakers continue on the path of fiscal irresponsibility undertaken in 2015. By one measure, debt could reach 92 percent of GDP by 2026 under that scenario.

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Update 1/26/16: The initial version of this paper stated the percent of nominal spending growth that is due to Social Security, health care programs, and interest as 90 percent. That was for gross health care programs. The paper has been updated to reflect offsetting receipts and now refers to net health care spending.  The correct figure is 83 percent.

Update 2/1/16: While we previously corrected for net health care spending (see below) we neglected to update the rest of the statistics in the paragraph in the “Spending, Revenue, Deficits, and Debt” section that relied upon that change. That has now been corrected.

 


1 In updating this section, CRFB switched from presenting fourth quarter over fourth quarter data to instead presenting fiscal year averages.

2  For example, CBO’s baseline assumes unfinanced highway spending continues and war spending grows with inflation regardless of the drawdown underweight – and therefore counts what is essentially an increase in war spending as a reduction while not counting an increase in current law highway spending. As another example, CBO counts a transfer of reserve from the Federal Reserve to Treasury – which it describes as increased “remittances to the Treasury from the Federal Reserve” – as deficit reduction.

Report: Analysis of CBO’s Updated Budget and Economic Outlook August 2015

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today released its updated budget and economic projections for the coming decade, showing that while short-term deficits are down, the debt continues to grow unsustainably over the long term. The report focuses on a “current law” baseline, which assumes policymakers generally pay for passing any new or extended tax cuts or spending increases. Under this scenario, CBO shows the following:

  • Deficits will fall to $426 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in 2015 and $414 billion (2.2 percent of GDP) in 2016, but will grow from there with trillion-dollar deficits returning by 2025, when annual borrowing will total 3.7 percent of GDP.
  • Debt held by the public will grow by nearly $8 trillion between now and 2025, from over $13 trillion today to $21 trillion by 2025. As a share of GDP, debt will remain near its post-World War II record high of 74 percent through 2021, before rising to about 77 percent of GDP by 2025.
  • Spending will grow from 20.6 percent of GDP in 2015 to 22.0 percent in 2025 while revenues will remain at about 18.3 percent of GDP.
  • Interest spending represents the fastest growing major part of the budget, rising from $218 billion (1.2 percent of GDP) in 2015 to $755 billion (2.8 percent of GDP) by 2025. Spending on the major health and retirement programs will grow from 10 to 12 percent of GDP.
  • CBO’s projections are quite similar to those made in March, with  lower interest rates improving the forecast but being largely offset by various technical changes and the recent permanent “doc fix” legislation.
  • Extrapolating forward, we project debt would likely exceed the size of the economy by around 2040, and continue to grow thereafter.
  • We project under the assumptions of CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario, where Congress extends various expired and expiring tax provisions and eliminates ”sequestration,” debt would exceed 85 percent of GDP by 2025 and exceed the size of the economy by around 2030.

CBO shows an unsustainable fiscal outlook under current law, and an even more dangerous one if policymakers continue to act irresponsibly. Lawmakers will therefore need to strictly abide by pay-as-you-go rules and take steps to control the growth of entitlement spending, while enacting other tax and spending reforms to put debt on a downward path over the long run.

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Report: Analysis of the 2015 Social Security Trustees' Report

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Today, the Social Security and Medicare Trustees released their annual reports on the financial health of the programs. Although these projections show some improvements relative to last year, they nonetheless show both programs continue to face large shortfalls that will grow over time. With regards to Social Security, the Trustees show that:

  • The Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund is on the brink of depletion, and is projected to be exhausted in late 2016 – just over a year from today. Absent legislation, beneficiaries in that program would face an immediate 19 percent across-the-board benefit cut.
  • On a combined basis, or assuming reallocation or interfund borrowing, the Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust funds are projected to be exhausted in 2034. At that point, all beneficiaries would face an immediate 21 percent across-the-board benefit cut, which would grow to more than 27 percent by 2090.
  • Over 75 years, Social Security’s actuarial imbalance totals 2.68 percent of taxable payroll, or about 0.96 percent of GDP.
  • The gap between Social Security spending and revenues is projected to grow from 1.3 percent of payroll (0.46 percent of GDP) this year to 3.5 percent of payroll (1.26 percent of GDP) by 2040 and 4.7 percent of payroll (1.62 percent of GDP) by 2090.
  • Overall, this year’s report represents an improvement over last year’s, which showed a combined trust fund exhaustion date of 2033 (one year sooner) and a 75-year actuarial imbalance of 2.88 percent of payroll (0.20 percentage points higher).

Although the projections have slightly improved, Social Security’s long-term outlook is fundamentally unchanged. The SSDI trust fund will be depleted next year, and the combined trust funds by the time today’s 48-year-olds reach the normal retirement age – or when today’s newest retirees turn 81.

Policymakers must act quickly to put Social Security on a path toward solvency. As time goes on, it will be more difficult to secure the Social Security programs for current and future generations with thoughtful changes instead of abrupt benefit cuts or tax increases.

Read the full report below, or at this link (pdf).

Report: CBO's Analysis of the President’s FY 2016 Budget

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Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its re-estimate of the President’s FY 2016 budget, using its own economic and technical assumptions. While CBO generally shows lower debt in the near term than the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) did, it also shows debt on a slight upward path as a share of GDP after 2020. Thus, it is less likely that the budget would stabilize debt over the long term, as OMB’s projections showed.

According to CBO, debt held by the public in the President’s budget would reach 73.1 percent of GDP by 2025, 1 percentage point lower than in 2014 (and about what OMB estimated), but 1 percentage point higher than in 2020. In dollars, debt would rise from about $13.1 trillion today to $20.1 trillion by 2025.

CBO projects debt under the President’s budget would be $1.1 trillion lower than in CBO’s current law baseline in 2025. Those savings can be mostly attributed to two factors: increased revenue and reductions in war spending that are largely already expected to occur.

CBO projects annual deficits would fall from $486 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) in 2015 to $380 billion (2.0 percent of GDP) in 2016 before rising in every subsequent year to over $800 billion (2.9 percent of GDP) by 2025. Both spending and revenue will be growing as a share of GDP over this period, but spending will increase slightly faster, from 20.5 percent in 2015 to 22.1 percent in 2025, while revenue will rise from 17.8 percent to 19.2 percent. These increases are the result of both current law trends and policy changes proposed in the President’s budget.

CBO estimates deficits through 2025 will be $206 billion higher under the President’s budget than OMB estimates, with more than the entire difference ($345 billion) coming from differences in economic projections. In the other direction, $139 billion of technical differences reduced deficits relative to what OMB estimated. In addition, using CBO’s GDP instead of OMB’s results in the 2025 debt-to-GDP ratio being one percentage point higher.

Ultimately, CBO shows that while the President’s budget responsibly offsets its new spending, it does not go far enough in reducing the debt to ensure fiscal sustainability over the long term.

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Report: Analysis of the President’s FY 2016 Budget

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Today, the President released his FY 2016 budget, laying out his priorities and proposals for the coming year. The budget includes policies and initiatives to reform immigration, taxes, and Medicare, while promoting early and higher education, reducing low-income and middle-class taxes, repealing a portion of future sequester cuts, and implementing other tax and spending changes.

Our main findings from the budget are:

  • The President’s budget includes sufficient revenue and spending cuts to pay for his new initiatives and reduce deficits by about $930 billion relative to current law over the next decade. Relative to the President’s baseline, the budget includes $2.2 trillion of deficit reduction.
  • Based on its own projections, debt under the President’s budget would remain relatively stable as a share of GDP, reaching 73 percent of GDP in 2025 compared to 74 percent today. In dollar terms, debt will rise from about $13 trillion today to over $20 trillion by 2025.
  • Deficits under the President’s budget would remain steady over the course of the decade at about 2.5 percent of GDP each year.
  • Between 2015 and 2025, spending will grow from 20.9 percent of GDP to 22.2 percent and revenue from 17.7 percent of GDP to 19.7 percent. Historically, they have averaged 20.1 and 17.4 percent, respectively.

Interest costs alone, in the budget, will grow from under $230 billion (1.3 percent of GDP) today to nearly $800 billion (2.8 percent of GDP) in 2025.

The President’s budget should be commended for responsibly identifying tax and spending offsets sufficient to pay for new spending and tax cuts, and setting aside additional savings for deficit reduction beyond that.

However, the budget does far too little to reduce current debt levels nor slow the growth of entitlement spending over the long-run. Under the President’s budget, debt remains roughly twice as high as in 2007 and higher than any time in history other than around World War II. Meanwhile, Social Security and Medicare remain on paths toward insolvency and both programs – along with interest spending – will continue to grow rapidly.

Ultimately, significant entitlement reforms will be necessary to put the debt on a sustainable path. And the longer we wait to enact these reforms, the larger and more abrupt they will need to be.

Update (2/4): Figure 3 has been updated to incorporate official Treasury Department estimates on the extension of the refundable tax credit expansions.

Report: CBO's January 2015 Budget and Economic Outlook

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its Budget and Economic Outlook today, showing their budget and economic forecasts through 2025. After falling to post-recession lows below $470 billion this year and next, CBO projects deficits will again start to rise, exceeding $1 trillion by 2025.

Over the next decade, CBO projects deficits of $7.6 trillion (3.3 percent of GDP), with deficits growing from a low of $467 billion (2.5 percent of GDP) in 2016 to $1.09 trillion (4.0 percent of GDP) by 2025.

As a result, debt will rise over the next decade, from $13 trillion today to $16.6 trillion at the end of 2020 and $21.6 trillion by the end of 2025. As a share of GDP, debt will remain stable at current post-war highs of about 74 percent of GDP through 2020, but then rise continuously to almost 79 percent of GDP by 2025 and continue to grow unsustainably over the long run.

The gloomy debt and deficit outlook is the result of rising spending and relatively flat revenue collection. Despite discretionary spending falling as a share of GDP, Social Security, health care, and interest spending will grow substantially, pushing spending from 20.3 percent of GDP in 2015 to 22.3 percent by 2025. At the same time, revenue will remain roughly flat at near 18 percent of GDP through most of the next ten years, reaching 18.3 in 2025.

Compared to their prior projections, released last August, deficits are about $175 billion lower through 2024 – almost entirely due to changes in 2016 through 2018. However, long-term economic projections have also worsened – with nominal GDP about 1 percent lower in 2024 – resulting in a slightly higher debt-to-GDP ratio by 2024.

Even these projections assume that lawmakers do not enact new deficit-increasing policies. If they act irresponsibly and extend temporary policies and repeal scheduled cuts, debt would be much worse and could reach 88 percent of GDP by 2025.

Overall, CBO’s baseline shows a fiscal outlook which is clearly unsustainable. Correcting this course will require reducing the gap between spending and revenue by enacting serious tax and entitlement reforms. The longer policymakers wait, the more difficult they will find it to put our fiscal house in order.

Report: Analysis of CBO's Updated Budget and Economic Forecast

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Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released updated budget and economic projections for the coming decade, showing today’s record-high debt levels continuing to rise over the next decade. The report focuses on a “current law” baseline, which assumes policymakers break with the current practice of deficit-financing extensions of various expired or expiring policies. Even under this somewhat optimistic scenario, CBO shows the following:

  • In nominal dollars, deficits will grow from $506 billion in 2014 to $960 billion in 2024, and debt will grow from $12.8 trillion to $20.6 trillion.
  • As a percent of GDP, debt will stabilize around its post-World War II record high of 74 percent through 2020, before rising to above 77 percent of GDP by 2024.
  • Deficits will remain below 3 percent of GDP through 2018, but rise to 3.6 percent of GDP by 2024.
  • Federal revenues will stabilize at about 18 percent of GDP, while spending will grow from 20.4 percent of GDP in 2014 to 21.8 percent in 2024.
  • The fastest growing part of the budget is interest payments, which will rise from 1.3 to 3.0 percent of GDP by 2024. Spending on the major health and retirement programs will grow from 9.8 to 11.5 percent of GDP.
  • Compared with prior estimates, CBO expects the economy to be somewhat weaker, mostly due to 2014 growth being 1.2 percentage points lower.
  • Compared with prior projections, CBO expects the debt to be about $400 billion lower in 2024, reaching 77.2 percent of GDP rather than 78 percent.
  • If extrapolated forward, we find CBO would project debt to exceed the size of the economy before 2040 and reach nearly 150 percent of GDP by 2060.

CBO continues to show an unsustainable outlook for federal debt, even under current law. Under CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario, where Congress extends various expiring tax provisions, continues “doc fixes,” and eliminates sequestration, debt would reach 85.7 percent of GDP in 2024 instead of 77.2 percent. Lawmakers will therefore need to strictly abide by pay-as-you-go rules and take steps to control the growth of entitlement spending, while enacting other tax and spending reforms to put debt on a downward path over the long run.

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Report: Analysis of the 2014 Social Security Trustees' Report

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See our followup blog series for additional information on the Trustees Report not included in the analysis below.

The Social Security and Medicare Trustees released their annual reports today on the finances of both programs. The reports are an annual reminder of the action lawmakers should take to ensure the long-term solvency of Social Security and Medicare – both of which continue to face large and growing shortfalls. With regards to Social Security, the Trustees show that:

  • The Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund is on the brink of insolvency, and is projected to be exhausted in 2016 – just 2 years from today. Absent legislation, beneficiaries in that program would face an immediate 19 percent across-the-board benefit cut.
  • Assuming reallocation or interfund borrowing, the combined Old Age, Survivors’, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trust fund is projected to be exhausted in 2033. At that point, absent reform, all beneficiaries would face an immediate 23 percent across-the-board benefit cut.
  • Over 75 years, Social Security’s actuarial imbalance totals 2.88 percent of taxable payroll, or 1.02 percent of GDP. This is modestly higher than the 2.72 percent of taxable payroll (0.98 percent of GDP) imbalance that the Trustees reported last year.
  • The gap between Social Security spending and revenues is projected to grow from 1.3 percent of payroll (0.45 percent of GDP) this year to 3.9 percent of payroll (1.4 percent of GDP) by 2035 and 4.9 percent of payroll (1.7 percent of GDP) by the end of the 75-year window.
  • This report represents the fourth straight year where the 75-year shortfall has increased. In the 2010 report, the shortfall was estimated at 1.92 percent of taxable payroll, but it is now about fifty percent larger at 2.88 percent.

Although the projections have worsened somewhat, Social Security’s long-term outlook is fundamentally unchanged. The DI trust fund will be insolvent in just two years, and the old-age trust fund by the time today’s 48-year-olds reach the normal retirement age – or when today’s 60-year-olds turn 79. The report sends a clear signal on the need for lawmakers to act promptly to reform and secure the Social Security programs for current and future generations

.

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Report: The 2014 CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today released its 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook, detailing the budget picture for the next 75 years. The report shows debt rising as a share of the economy continuously after 2017, a trend which CBO describes as unsustainable over the long run.

Under the Extended Baseline Scenario (EBS), which assumes that policymakers allow temporary spending and tax provisions to expire and do not further increase deficits in the years ahead, debt held by the public will rise from 74 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 – a post-war record – to 108 percent by 2040, 147 percent by 2060, and 212 percent by 2085.

This dramatic rise in debt assumes policymakers act in a fiscally responsible manner. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario (AFS), which assumes that policymakers will increase spending and reduce taxes compared to current law, shows a steeper climb in debt – to 170 percent of GDP by 2040, and by our calculations to 330 percent by 2060, and 620 percent by 2085.

Despite legislation in recent years to raise revenue and reduce spending – particularly discretionary spending – the long-term debt situation remains far from solved. Health and retirement programs will continue to grow faster than the economy at a quicker pace than revenue growth, leading to growing deficits, rising interest costs, and ever-rising debt levels.

Policymakers should act quickly to put in place tax and entitlement reforms to put debt on a sustainable long-term path. The longer we wait to act, the more severe the consequences and the more painful the choices will be.

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