Economy

More on the Downside Risk of Changes to Budget Forecasts

Yesterday, we argued that to actually stabilize the debt as a share of the economy, you probably need to propose a plan with even more savings than what would stabilize the debt under current projections. The risks come from both the economic and political uncertainties:

Offsetting the Jobs Bill

Yesterday, the President offered a plan for how he would pay for his $447 billion jobs proposal. The pay-fors would come entirely from revenues, mainly from limiting itemized deductions and other tax expenditures for people earning over $200,000 ($250,000 for families) per year.

Recent Proposals for Job Growth

Leading up to President Obama’s job speech tomorrow evening, there has been much speculation as to the measures the president will propose. The current expectations are that he will suggest a $200 - 300 billion jobs plan, including extensions of the payroll tax holiday, unemployment insurance, and certain business incentives.

CBO's Newest Economic Projections

In CBO's latest Budget and Economic Outlook, CBO includes revised projections of various economic indicators as part of its update. Since there is such a major relationship between economic conditions and fiscal policy, these numbers are of significant importance. CBO's latest economic projections do contain worse real GDP growth for the first few years, but much faster growth mid-decade.

CBO Update on the Economic Effects of ARRA

Yesterday, CBO released an update on the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) on employment and economic output in the second quarter of 2011.

NABE Survey Highlights Experts Views on Fiscal Matters

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) published the findings of its August 2011 Economic Policy Survey yesterday, in which 250 panel members were asked various policy questions between July 19 and August 2 of this year. The findings were very interesting, particularly that most panelists supported a mixture of spending cuts and revenue increases to reduce deficits.

Obama Administration Takes Further Steps to Help the Housing Market

With the housing market still depressed almost five years after the housing bubble burst, the Obama administration is seeking input from private investors on methods to convert foreclosed properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into rental homes.

A Roller Coaster Ride in Financial Markets

Who needs amusement parks when you can watch the volatility that is the stock market? Just a day after the Dow Jones posted its biggest one-day loss since the financial meltdown in 2008, the Dow bounced back with a 400+ point gain. In the middle of the day, there was the much-anticipated release of the FOMC's statement, which itself contributed to the up-and-down action.

Low GDP Growth and Stalemate in the Congress

With the Bureau of Economic Analysis releasing tepid GDP numbers of only 1.3 percent growth and last night's failure of the House of Representatives to bring up Speaker Boehner's (R-OH) debt limit proposal, the markets opened down.

Fed's Beige Book Points to Slowing Economy

Fed’s latest Beige Book, released yesterday, pointed to slowing growth (but still positive growth) across many economic sectors and regions. On a region by region basis, the Fed found that Fed districts nearest the Atlantic seaboard were most affected by the economic slowdown while other districts such as the Atlanta District and the Dallas District felt their growth less impeded.

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