CRFB Releases and Events
We've released our analysis of CBO's estimate of the President's budget, breaking down the report and its supplementary data in less than six pages. Our paper explains that CBO finds that many policies would save less than the President's budget claims shows debt on an upward, rather than a downward path.
Although CBO shows lower debt as a percent of GDP than OMB does, it also shows debt on a slight upward path after 2020, meaning the budget is less likely to stabilize debt over the long term using CBO's numbers (OMB's numbers showed stable debt through 2040). Debt would fall from 74 percent of GDP in 2014 to 72 percent by 2020 before rising gradually to 73 percent by 2025. Thus, the budget would likely have to do more to truly put debt on a sustainable path.
Debt as a Percent of GDP in the President's Budget
Debt would rise after 2020 because deficits would increase throughout much of the ten-year window. Although they would fall from $486 billion (2.7 percent of GDP) in 2015 to $380 billion (2 percent) in 2016, they would rise continuously after that to $801 billion (2.9 percent) by 2025. The 2025 deficit is lower than CBO's baseline deficit of 3.8 percent but higher than OMB estimated deficit of 2.5 percent.
In light of the upcoming Fiscal Speed Bump when the most recent doc fix patch expires on March 31, yesterday we released an update to our Paying for Reform and Extension Policies (PREP) Plan, which illustrates how to responsibly replace the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) with a permanent solution. In just 3 pages, we describe a fiscally sustainable approach to finally solving the decade-long problem of the large physician payment cuts that the SGR proscribes (21 percent in the current iteration).
Building upon the bipartisan, bicamerial tricommittee bill introduced last year to replace the SGR with alternate payment models, we go one step further by proposing $215 billion of offsets to pay for the replacement and a package of "health extenders." Not only would this avoid adding to deficits, it would also provide greater incentives for high-quality, coordinated care and help to bend the health care cost curve.
Congress approached and addressed the first impending "Fiscal Speed Bump" this week, cleanly funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) with appropriations through the rest of the fiscal year. The updated set of speed bumps now have two more approaching in March - the expiration of the "doc fix" for the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) and the reinstatement of the debt ceiling (though the Treasury Department's "extraordinary measures" will move the actual date for action to this fall). We wrote this week on both the prospects for the doc fix can getting kicked down the road until later this year or next and the hard deadline for the debt ceiling in the fall.
In the coming weeks, lawmakers will release their budget resolutions outlining their blueprints for Fiscal Year 2016. Their passage starts the appropriations process, which requires bills to be passed before the October 1 deadline, which coincides with the expiration of the Ryan-Murray budget deal.
With the release of the President's FY 2016 Budget yesterday, CRFB published a condensed analysis of the President's baseline and major proposals.
Yesterday, CRFB published an analysis of CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook. The six-page document summarizes the forecasts and emphasizes the return of trillion-dollar deficits over the next ten years. Although CBO projects slightly decreasing deficits over the next two years, there will be a jump from a 2016 low of $467 billion to a $1.09 trillion by 2025.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted a policy discussion this past Tuesday on dynamic scoring. CRFB President Maya MacGuineas opened the event by noting that dynamic scoring is an issue that will receive considerable attention over the coming months and could have an impact on fiscal policy decisions. Speakers offered their perspectives on the merits and challenges of using dynamic estimates in the legislative and budget process. Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) and Representative Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) offered remarks on their opinions and perspectives on dynamic scoring. A panel of dynamic scoring experts followed, moderated by CRFB President Maya MacGuineas. See CRFB's paper on dynamic scoring for a detailed discussion or our updated 2-page summary.
Sen. Portman spoke in favor of CBO and JCT providing dynamic estimates of bills. He argued that, at the very least, estimates should be done to inform staff and lawmakers how bills will affect the economy. He spoke about the bipartisan support for his bill, which passed by a vote of 51-48 with six Democrats voting in favor of it, when he offered it as an amendment during consideration of the FY 2014 Senate budget resolution. Portman acknowledged that there is a legitimate debate over which models and assumptions should be used, but he encouraged detractors to support presenting dynamic estimates as supplemental information, as his amendment would, not for official purposes. It would be apparent if dynamic estimates are significantly different than current methods, and policymakers would be able to look back to see which estimates were more accurate.
Congressman Van Hollen gave the opposing viewpoint. Van Hollen argued that dynamic scoring inherently demands that CBO or JCT adopt a specific ideology when estimating a bill. He mentioned estimates from the Heritage Foundation predicting revenue increases from the 2001/2003 tax cuts and claims that the 1993 tax increases would harm the economy. He also said that many models for dynamic analysis make assumptions about future actions to offset the cost of tax cuts, effectively giving legislation credit for policies not in the bill. He drew a distinction between the CBO estimate of immigration reform legislation, which took into account the direct impact of additional workers in the labor force, and dynamic estimates which incorporate the estimated indirect economic effects of legislation. Van Hollen reminded audience members that CBO and JCT already use microdynamic analysis in scoring bills—they weigh behavioral responses from individuals and businesses and the factors of supply and demand. He also acknowledged that dynamic analysis is useful as supplemental information, as long as policymakers understand the underlying assumptions.
Congress and the President need to prep for some important upcoming fiscal moments, and CRFB has a plan to help them do just that. The Paying for Reform and Extension Policies Plan, or the PREP Plan shows a path to restoring the expired tax extenders and avoiding the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate cuts without adding $1 trillion to the deficit.
The PREP Plan assumes (but does not endorse) the passage of the Tricommittee SGR reform bill and a two-year tax extenders package. The plan includes over $250 billion of offsets, roughly two thirds from reforming incentives to slow health care cost growth and one third from improving tax compliance, along with a fast-track process for tax reform.
You can read the full plan here and view some of the details in the table below.
In addition to putting forward a plan, CRFB released a number of principles that should apply to any effort to continue extenders or reform the SGR.
Moments ago, CRFB published a new 6-page paper summarizing CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook. Under its current law baseline, CBO estimates that federal debt held by the public will reach 74 percent of GDP by the end of 2014 – a post-war record and more than twice the level at the end of 2007. Debt will fall slightly to below 73 percent by 2018 but, beyond that, CBO’s forecasts show that debt levels will resume their upward trend, reaching 77.2 percent of GDP in 2024.
This growing debt is largely the result of a projected rise in spending levels not matched by equivalent increases in revenue. While CBO forecasts revenue to remain roughly stable as a share of GDP, at about 18 percent, spending will increase from 20.4 percent of GDP in 2014 to 21.8 percent in 2024. As we explain in our paper:
Much of this increase is due to the growth in the entitlement programs resulting from health care cost growth, population aging, and the coverage expansion under the Affordable Care Act. Social Security will grow from 4.9 percent of GDP in 2014 to 5.6 percent by 2024. Meanwhile, federal health spending will grow from 4.9 percent of GDP to 5.9 percent by 2024. The fastest growing portion of the budget, however, is interest payments; they will rise precipitously as a result of rising interest rates and growing debt levels. Net interest costs are projected to double between 2014 and 2021 -- from 1.3 percent of GDP in 2014 to 2.7 – and grow to 3 percent of GDP by 2024.
Overall, health care programs, Social Security, and interest spending will account for a striking 85 percent of the increase in spending over the next decade.
On August 15, PublicSquare.net hosted a debate on Social Security featuring CRFB's very own Ed Lorenzen. The event, titled "Can Simpson-Bowles Save Social Security?" involved Benjamin Veghte, Research Director at Social Security Works, and Lorenzen, a Senior Advisor at CRFB who served on the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform that was chaired by Erskine Bowles and Al Simpson. The debate was moderated by Taylor Kinzler.
Before leaving town for August recess, Congress passed additional VA funding and a short-term patch to the Highway Trust Fund. However, more deadlines are approaching quickly, and Congress will have many "fiscal speed bumps" next year – all of which present firm deadlines for action.
The end of the fiscal year is September 30. At that point, Congress needs to have passed appropriations bills or a continuing resolution for next year to fund the government. Since Congress has not yet passed any of the 12 appropriations bills and are only in session a little over two weeks in September, it seems likely that a continuing resolution will be needed to avert a government shutdown. (See Appropriations 101 for an explanation of the process).
Beyond that, there will be pressure to revive tax extenders, a package of over 50 tax breaks. Although they expired at the end of 2013, they can be reinstated retroactively without much difficulty if done this year. The House and Senate have taken different approaches to the extenders (though both would add to the deficit), but they would need to come to agreement before the end of the year.
Next spring, several of this year's extensions will expire: The debt ceiling will need to be raised when it goes back into effect on March 16, and Medicare provider payments will be cut by 24 percent unless a "doc fix" is enacted by March 31. By the end of May, Congress will need to shore up the Highway Trust Fund and re-authorize the fund's spending. As part of a long-term highway fix, Congress will either need to raise highway revenues or cut spending as we explained in our paper, Trust or Bust: Fixing the Highway Trust Fund.