CRFB Releases and Events
Today marks Social Security's 80th birthday, celebrating the anniversary of the establishment of the old-age portion of the program in the Social Security Act of 1935. To kick off the celebration, CRFB released a new report yesterday, "Debunking 8 Social Security Myths on Its 80th Birthday," that seeks to clear up the conversation about the program.
The 8 myths are:
- Myth #1: Social Security does not face a large funding shortfall
- Myth #2: Today’s workers will not receive Social Security benefits
- Myth #3: Social Security would be fine if we hadn’t “raided the trust fund”
- Myth #4: Social Security cannot run a deficit
- Myth #5: Social Security has nothing to do with the rest of the budget
- Myth #6: We don’t need to worry about Social Security for 20 years
- Myth #7: Social Security reform is code for slashing benefits, especially for the poor
- Myth #8: Social Security is too hard to fix
The next President will need to confront a number of budgetary challenges and will likely sign into law many federal tax and spending changes. But election campaigns are often about telling voters what they want to hear rather than what they need to know. Today we released our new report, Fiscal FactCheck: 16 Budget Myths to Watch Out For in the 2016 Campaign, in which we identified 16 myths that may come up during the campaign. The myths span things we think candidates from both parties may say or have said about matters related to our national debt, taxes, health care, Social Security, and one-size-fits-all solutions that they think will dismiss the need for real action. The myths report is the first of a Fiscal FactCheck series that will fact check candidates on their statements throughout the 2016 campaign.
The 16 myths are:
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has named three of the nation's foremost budget experts as its new co-chairs: Mitch Daniels, Leon Panetta, and Tim Penny. We are confident that the organization, as well as fiscal hawks across the country, will benefit greatly from their leadership.
“We are uncommonly lucky to have these three great leaders join together to lead the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee. “Between them, they have written several books; led states, congressional committees, and federal agencies; and headed the Office of Management and Budget — not to mention all being well-known leaders in calling for fiscal responsibility.”
CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, released yesterday, is a detailed 130-page document, filled with budget projections for the next 25 years, along with a supplemental spreadsheet with projections for the next 75 years. We've boiled down the document into a concise 6-page analysis with key facts and findings. CBO's debt projections have changed only slightly since last year – slightly higher debt in the next few years and a very modest decline in the still unsustainable upward track thereafter.
As we explain in our paper, CBO projects deficit and debt levels to remain fairly stable over the next few years, but then rise dramatically. Under CBO's "Extended Baseline Scenario," which generally reflects current law, deficits will rise from 2.7 percent of GDP over the next several years, to 3.8 percent by 2025, 5.9 percent by 2040, and 9.5 percent by 2090. As we explain, this will have major implications for debt:
The combination of deficit reduction legislation earlier this decade, low interest rates, and a slowdown in health care cost growth have certainly improved the long-term fiscal outlook, yet debt remains at record-high levels and is set to continue growing unsustainably with no end in sight. If policymakers continue to act irresponsibly – as they did with the “doc fix” legislation earlier this year – the situation will be far worse."
Over the past few years, we have seen many attempts by lawmakers to wriggle out of budgetary discipline by resorting to budget gimmicks. A new CRFB chartbook and one-pager highlight many of these gimmicks, including when they have been used and just how they work.
The one-pager, in particular, focuses on four of the most-frequently used gimmicks in recent years.
With the deadline for extending the surface transportation authorization just a few weeks away and Highway Trust Fund (HTF) bankruptcy approaching this summer, CRFB has released the The Road to Sustainable Highway Spending, a detailed plan to fix the HTF's finances and bring greater rationality to the process of determining highway spending and revenue. The plan would fully close the $175 billion trust fund shortfall through 2025 and set up processes to make future general revenue transfers to the fund much less likely.
Click here to read the full plan.
The plan first articulates three principles that any responsible highway solution should abide by:
- Act quickly to ensure adequate funding. Congress must extend the highway bill this month and provide sufficient funding to avoid disruptions this summer.
- Offset any general revenue transfers with real savings. While at least a short-term general revenue transfer is likely needed, it would be irresponsible to enact a transfer without equal-sized spending cuts or revenue increases to offset the cost. Resorting to gimmicks such as pension smoothing undermines the trust fund’s credibility.
- Close the structural imbalance. Lawmakers cannot rely on general revenue transfers in perpetuity and must ultimately bring highway spending and dedicated revenue in line. Plans should close this gap, and any that fail to do so should acknowledge that further action will need to be taken in the future.
CRFB has released a new compendium of over 150 options to reduce mandatory spending and raise revenue. Despite declining in deficits in recent years, the debt is still projected to rise substantially over the long term. In addition, a series of upcoming Fiscal Speed Bumps will force lawmakers to make decisions about spending and revenue that could require large amounts of offsets, or potentially add almost $2 trillion to the debt.
Click here to see the full list of options.
Our list of options is meant to assist in finding fiscally responsible Speed Bump solutions, achieve some of the unspecified savings in the budget resolution, and help make the country's fiscal situation sustainable.
This paper updates and expands a health care and revenue options report released during the fiscal cliff discussions in late 2012. The new list also focuses on revenue and health care but also includes options for other mandatory (non-health, non-Social Security) spending that may be useful in the months ahead.
Congress sped through this year's second and third "Fiscal Speed Bumps" in March, ignoring the return of the statutory debt limit (though the hard deadline for the debt limit is not until this fall, due to the Treasury Department's "extraordinary measures") and hurrying through a fiscally irresponsible, though permanent, solution to the expiration of the Medicare "doc fix." We've updated our Speed Bumps graphic, below, showing lawmakers barreling full speed to the end of May when the Highway Trust Fund will run out of money.
This week, the House and Senate will announce their conferenced budget resolution, which outlines their blueprint for Fiscal Year 2016. The passage of the concurrent budget resolution signals the start of the appropriations process, which must be completed before an October 1 deadline. That deadline also coincides with the expiration of the Ryan-Murray budget deal and the return of sequestration discretionary spending levels. As we wrote last week, the House jumped the gun and has already started work on several appropriations bills in advance of the final resolution.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is pleased to announce three new job openings. Those who are interested can visit our jobs page for a detailed description of each position's responsibilities and qualifications.
The positions are:
- Legislative Director: The Legislative Director will contribute to the organization’s ongoing legislative efforts in the areas of federal tax, health, disability, budget, and economic policy. The Director will be a member of the senior team. We are looking for a team player who has previous Hill experience as well as a strong commitment to advocating for responsible fiscal policies.
- Policy Analyst: The Policy Analyst will contribute to the organization’s analysis of federal tax, health, disability, budget, and economic policy issues. We are looking for a team player interested in writing, researching, and publishing new content, analyzing new legislation and approaches to federal budget policy, and becoming part of a growing team of fiscal policy thought leaders.
- Policy Writer: The Policy Writer will assist the policy team in drafting and editing content on a variety of fiscal topics including federal tax, health, disability, budget, and economic policy. We are looking for a team player who is able to distill complex policy material into accessible and compelling content.
Applicants should send a resume, cover letter, and contact information for three references to email@example.com. Those applying for the Policy Analyst and Policy Writer positions should also send a writing sample of six pages or less.