Based on CBO's Long Term Outlook, one could conclude solely based on the debt levels projected that either we were headed on a sustainable path, with debt actually being paid off around 2070 (the Extended Baseline scenario), or we were headed for absolute disaster, with debt rising exponentially to 935 percent of GDP 75 years from now (the Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
Critics of CBO scoring like to cite past predictions that widely missed the mark. Sometimes, too, critics compare apples to oranges, and that is the case with the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) again this week. As reported by National Journal, Congressman Phil Roe (R-TN) claims in referring to CBO's report on the fiscal cliff, "Remember that the CBO estimated two years ago that the Affordable Care Act would be $900 billion, and 24 months later it’s $1.7 trillion.
The much-anticipated CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook has been released this morning, projecting what the budget will look like over the next 75 years. CBO's outlook shows a tale of two paths: the relatively optimistic Extended Baseline and the absolutely disastrous Alternative Fiscal Scenario. The Extended Baseline assumes that current law happens and brings debt down to a sustainable level while the AFS assumes--more realistically--that current policies will be extended, resulting in exponentially growing debt.
What is dynamic scoring? How are legislative proposals currently scored? CRFB's latest policy paper details the process and methods that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) use to estimate the budget impact of legislation and the pros and cons of supplementing that process with "dynamic scoring."
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) doesn't make recommendations for, or against, any fiscal plan, but that doesn't mean they can't help others do so. To that end, CBO director Doug Elmendorf recently suggested six criteria with which to evaluate the many plans out there. Of course, these criteria are not necessarily co-equal, but each are important. They are:
In addition to the infographic CBO released yesterday, it also released a detailed new report on the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance pood stamp program. As an “automatic stabilizer,” the program has grown tremendously in the past few years as more individuals have become eligible for benefits as a result of the economic downturn.
More often than not, pictures can demonstrate a problem or issue better than the raw data can.