Update: Our paper on CBO's Long Term Outlook has been released.
CBO has just released its 2011 Long Term Outlook, detailing spending, revenue, and debt levels over the next 75 years. The report shows a similar trend in both the Extended Baseline and Alternative Fiscal Scenarios: worsening in the short term, improvement in the long term compared to last year.
Recently, CBO Director Doug Elmendorf spoke to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York about current policies and how they affect the nation's fiscal future. Elmendorf’s presentation, titled Federal Budget Math: We Can’t Repeat the Past, highlighted key aspects of federal budget policy in the last forty years and of CBO’s projections for 2021.
This afternoon, the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy is hosting a panel on the budget deficit and national debt. Panelists include former Congressional Budget Office directors and CRFB board members Alice Rivlin, Doug Holtz-Eakin, Rudolph Penner, and Robert Reischauer. The event starts at 3:00 pm so be sure to check it out.
Click here to watch the event live on C-SPAN.
In the past few days, CBO has released a few documents that might be of interest to budget wonks.
The first is a further analysis of the final FY 2011 spending agreement that was passed a month ago. The estimate not only shows CBO's updated discretionary spending estimates for this year, but also what discretionary spending will be over ten years using CBO's baseline convention of inflation growth.
In response to Representative Paul Ryan's (R-WI) FY 2012 Budget proposal, CBO has released a long-term analysis of the proposal. The analysis, which includes the numbers reflected in Ryan's proposal released today, also goes into the policy effects of the various reforms he is offering and the long-term effects of his proposal.
Last week, CBO showed that the President's Budget was way too optimistic about its projections of deficits and debt. But CBO's findings would not have surprised readers of The Bottom Line, who saw us try to predict what the budget would look like using the parameters of CBO's January baseline and getting rid of the unspecified offsets for increased transportation spending and the doc fix.
Along with CBO's preliminary analysis of the President's Budget on Friday came an update in CBO's baseline, which actually shows a $234 billion reduction in deficits over the 2012-2021 period compared to its January baseline. It also shows an $81 billion reduction in the deficit this year, meaning that they project the 2011 deficit to not be an all-time high.
Earlier today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its preliminary analysis of President Obama’s FY2012 budget request. In conjunction with CBO’s release, we have published a paper that looks at the President’s budget in the context of CBO’s most recent analysis. In it, we explore the differences between CBO and OMB estimates, the factors contributing to these differences, and what all of this means for our fiscal outlook.