The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its analysis of the President's FY 2015 budget, applying its own budget baseline and methodology to the President's policies. The agency finds that the budget would reduce debt relative to CBO's baseline by significantly less than the Administration anticipates, with debt on a modest upward path in the latter part of the ten-year budget window, increasing to 74.3 percent of GDP in 2024, rather than falling to 69 percent of GDP as OMB previously estimated.
One of the notable changes in Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest budget baseline was a downward revision in projected Medicare spending from their last forecast in February. CBO now estimates that Medicare spending net of offsetting receipts for the 2015-2024 period will be approximately $106 billion lower than what the agency projected back in February.
CBO's most recent budget projections show debt on an unsustainable path – rising from a post-war record 73 percent of GDP today to 78 percent by 2024. Importantly, however, CBO's projections do not always reflect where debt is likely to go after accounting for the actions that lawmakers might take.
In advance of the release of their analysis of the President's budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated their budget baseline for fiscal years 2015-2024. While the newest projections are a slight improvement over their previous estimates in February, they still show debt on a clear upward path as a share of GDP starting in 2018 and likely continuing over the long term.
Congressman Reid Ribble (R-WI) and Congressman Mark Pocan (D-WI) introduced the Long-Term Studies of Comprehensive Outcomes and Returns for the Economy Act, or Long-Term SCORE Act, today.
To bolster their case against offsetting the high cost of SGR reform, many have claimed that the Medicare Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR) is “budget fakery” and represents “savings that aren’t going to be realized.” Yet while it’s true most SGR cuts have not gone into effect as scheduled, that doesn’t mean the SGR hasn’t helped to control health care costs.
In Expressing Concerns over CBO's Role, Zachary Karabell Actually Makes a Strong Case For CBO's Role
In a Washington Post article last weekend, Zachary Karabell takes issue with the importance placed on CBO scoring of legislation, arguing that the focus on cost estimates prevents the country from spending on projects that could strengthen long-term economic growth.
In its February 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook, CBO continued its previous warnings from last year's February outlook and September's long-term outlook: elevated and rising debt level pose serious risks for economic growth and budget flexibility.
In its latest outlook, CBO highlights on page one the consequences of high levels of debt:
Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual report on the federal budget, which outlines their projections of all federal spending and revenues over the next 10 years and serves as a baseline against which to measure all of this year's legislation. The report showed that the deficit is expected to fall by $166 billion since last year, from $680 billion in 2013 to $514 billion in 2014.