Budget Projections

CBO's Updated Baseline Just Released

The Congressional Budget Office has just updated its Economic and Budget Outlook. We will be releasing a paper on changes to CBO's projections from March, as well as updating CRFB's Realistic Baseline to account for any adjustments. In the meantime, CBO has provided a fantastic infographic on the fiscal cliff:

Through Ten Months, the Deficit is $975 Billion

CBO's Monthly Budget Review for July lays out how the first ten months of this fiscal year compared to last year. The FY 2012 deficit so far totals $975 billion, $125 billion lower than the $1.1 trillion at this point last year. The lower deficit is the result of revenue being $114 billion higher and spending actually being $11 billion lower.

Reviewing the Review: How Does It Compare to the President's Budget?

OMB's Mid-Session Review, which was released on Friday, showed lower debt and deficits over ten years than did the President's budget. Our paper on the MSR also went into (mostly) economic and technical reasons why the MSR estimate differed from the February estimate of the President's budget.

Children and the Federal Budget

The Urban Institute held an event today (video here) on children and the federal budget, which involved CRFB Senior Policy Director Marc Goldwein and board members Eugene Steuerle and Dan Crippen. The centerpiece of the event was Urban's newest "Kids' Share" report and what it means for policies related to children going forward.

Fiscal Fact Checker: What Caused the Swing From Surplus to Deficit?

The Hill points to a press release by Senator (and former OMB director) Rob Portman (R-OH) that claims the upper-income portion of the 2001/2003/2010 tax cuts accounted for only 4 percent of the swing from surpluses to deficits starting in the early 2000s.

CBO Projects DoD's Plans Will Cost More Than Their Estimates

Today, CBO has released yearly estimates of the long-term budget projections for the Department of Defense. The DoD provides a plan to Congress called the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), in which DoD lays out its plans and the needed appropriations for the next five years. CBO uses this report to project future defense spending through 2030, using their own assumptions for variables like health care costs and weapons system prices that affect the defense budget.

Short-Sightedness on Display: Changes to Pension Insurance Risk Great Future Costs

Keith Hennessey examines a provision of the two-year transportation bill that may have reduced deficits on paper, but only by potentially increasing liabilities in the future. The full blog post is well worth a read and offers an interesting example of the budget gimmicks that politicians use in the PAYGO process.

Deficit On Track to Shrink Compared to Last Year

Although budget projections had already been showing this, we now have more definitive numbers from the Treasury Department that this year's deficit will be smaller than last year's. At this time last year, the deficit through the first eight months equaled $927.4 billion compared to $844.5 billion this year.

Introducing CRFB's Latest Long Term Realistic Baseline

With the release of CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook last week, CRFB has updated the Realistic Baseline to incorporate elements of CBO's long-term budget and economic projections.

The Drivers: Health Care Cost Growth and Population Aging

In our recent analysis of CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, we elaborated on how the overall federal debt is on an unsustainable path. Just twelve years from now, under CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario (AFS), debt will surpass 100 percent of GDP, and by 2038, it will exceed 200 percent. Driving this debt growth are the increasing costs of Social Security and especially Medicare and Medicaid.

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