The Congressional Budget Office has just updated its Economic and Budget Outlook. We will be releasing a paper on changes to CBO's projections from March, as well as updating CRFB's Realistic Baseline to account for any adjustments. In the meantime, CBO has provided a fantastic infographic on the fiscal cliff:
CBO's Monthly Budget Review for July lays out how the first ten months of this fiscal year compared to last year. The FY 2012 deficit so far totals $975 billion, $125 billion lower than the $1.1 trillion at this point last year. The lower deficit is the result of revenue being $114 billion higher and spending actually being $11 billion lower.
The Urban Institute held an event today (video here) on children and the federal budget, which involved CRFB Senior Policy Director Marc Goldwein and board members Eugene Steuerle and Dan Crippen. The centerpiece of the event was Urban's newest "Kids' Share" report and what it means for policies related to children going forward.
Today, CBO has released yearly estimates of the long-term budget projections for the Department of Defense. The DoD provides a plan to Congress called the Future Years Defense Program (FYDP), in which DoD lays out its plans and the needed appropriations for the next five years. CBO uses this report to project future defense spending through 2030, using their own assumptions for variables like health care costs and weapons system prices that affect the defense budget.
Keith Hennessey examines a provision of the two-year transportation bill that may have reduced deficits on paper, but only by potentially increasing liabilities in the future. The full blog post is well worth a read and offers an interesting example of the budget gimmicks that politicians use in the PAYGO process.
Although budget projections had already been showing this, we now have more definitive numbers from the Treasury Department that this year's deficit will be smaller than last year's. At this time last year, the deficit through the first eight months equaled $927.4 billion compared to $844.5 billion this year.
In our recent analysis of CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, we elaborated on how the overall federal debt is on an unsustainable path. Just twelve years from now, under CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario (AFS), debt will surpass 100 percent of GDP, and by 2038, it will exceed 200 percent. Driving this debt growth are the increasing costs of Social Security and especially Medicare and Medicaid.