Budget Projections

How Does the Budget Look Now?

After a tense few days, or weeks for that matter, lawmakers have enacted a fiscal cliff package -- the American Taxpayer Relief Act. With budget negotiations likely laying low for a few days, we turn our attention to where the deal leaves the budget. We previously analyzed the budgetary effect of each provision of the deal relative to both current law and current policy. In this blog, we will go into more detail on what the budget will look like after the deal.

GAO Releases Its Long Term Fiscal Outlook

The Government Accountability Office has updated its long-term budget outlook, showing once again that our budget deficit needs to seriously be addressed on both the revenue and the spending side. The problem is too big to not put everything on the table.

CBO Quantifies the Fiscal Cliff and the Challenge Ahead

CBO has released two new reports that detail our short run problem of the fiscal cliff and the long term challenge of reducing the debt. Reading the reports together gives a good idea of the challenges lawmakers face as they work to replace the fiscal cliff with a "grand bargain."

The Final Tally for 2012: $1.09 Trillion Deficit

CBO's final Monthly Budget Review for FY 2012 came out today, showing the (preliminary) final estimate for the deficit that year: $1.09 trillion, or 7.0 percent of GDP. This figure is about $40 billion less than the $1.13 trillion deficit (7.3 percent of GDP) that CBO projected for 2012 in August and about $210 billion less than the $1.3 trillion (8.7 percent of GDP) deficit in 2011.

The Concord Coalition and Next 10 Release Budget Simulator

Today, the Concord Coalition and Next 10 released a new budget simulator that allows participants to choose for themselves how to reduce our unsustainable budget deficit. The simulator presents a wide range of options on both the spending and revenue sides, and calculates with interest what the budget deficit or surplus would be over the next 10 years.

What Else is New? Changes in CBO's Baseline

Naturally, when a new budget projection is released, as CBO's updated baseline was yesterday, a good question to ask is: what happened? It is interesting to see how the budget projections change as time unfolds and CBO incorporates new data. As is often the case, the answer boils down to mostly economic and technical revisions to health care, interest spending, and revenue.

CBO's Updated Economic and Budget Outlook

CRFB has just released a new analysis of CBO's updated Budget and Economic Outlook. The CBO updates its baseline every year in January, March, and August to account for changes in its forcasting of the Current Law and Alternate Fiscal Scenario (AFS) baselines. Below is the current law projection for each baseline that CBO has produced this year.

CBO's Updated Baseline Just Released

The Congressional Budget Office has just updated its Economic and Budget Outlook. We will be releasing a paper on changes to CBO's projections from March, as well as updating CRFB's Realistic Baseline to account for any adjustments. In the meantime, CBO has provided a fantastic infographic on the fiscal cliff:

Through Ten Months, the Deficit is $975 Billion

CBO's Monthly Budget Review for July lays out how the first ten months of this fiscal year compared to last year. The FY 2012 deficit so far totals $975 billion, $125 billion lower than the $1.1 trillion at this point last year. The lower deficit is the result of revenue being $114 billion higher and spending actually being $11 billion lower.

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