Budget Projections

The Final Tally for 2012: $1.09 Trillion Deficit

CBO's final Monthly Budget Review for FY 2012 came out today, showing the (preliminary) final estimate for the deficit that year: $1.09 trillion, or 7.0 percent of GDP. This figure is about $40 billion less than the $1.13 trillion deficit (7.3 percent of GDP) that CBO projected for 2012 in August and about $210 billion less than the $1.3 trillion (8.7 percent of GDP) deficit in 2011.

The Concord Coalition and Next 10 Release Budget Simulator

Today, the Concord Coalition and Next 10 released a new budget simulator that allows participants to choose for themselves how to reduce our unsustainable budget deficit. The simulator presents a wide range of options on both the spending and revenue sides, and calculates with interest what the budget deficit or surplus would be over the next 10 years.

What Else is New? Changes in CBO's Baseline

Naturally, when a new budget projection is released, as CBO's updated baseline was yesterday, a good question to ask is: what happened? It is interesting to see how the budget projections change as time unfolds and CBO incorporates new data. As is often the case, the answer boils down to mostly economic and technical revisions to health care, interest spending, and revenue.

CBO's Updated Economic and Budget Outlook

CRFB has just released a new analysis of CBO's updated Budget and Economic Outlook. The CBO updates its baseline every year in January, March, and August to account for changes in its forcasting of the Current Law and Alternate Fiscal Scenario (AFS) baselines. Below is the current law projection for each baseline that CBO has produced this year.

CBO's Updated Baseline Just Released

The Congressional Budget Office has just updated its Economic and Budget Outlook. We will be releasing a paper on changes to CBO's projections from March, as well as updating CRFB's Realistic Baseline to account for any adjustments. In the meantime, CBO has provided a fantastic infographic on the fiscal cliff:

Through Ten Months, the Deficit is $975 Billion

CBO's Monthly Budget Review for July lays out how the first ten months of this fiscal year compared to last year. The FY 2012 deficit so far totals $975 billion, $125 billion lower than the $1.1 trillion at this point last year. The lower deficit is the result of revenue being $114 billion higher and spending actually being $11 billion lower.

Reviewing the Review: How Does It Compare to the President's Budget?

OMB's Mid-Session Review, which was released on Friday, showed lower debt and deficits over ten years than did the President's budget. Our paper on the MSR also went into (mostly) economic and technical reasons why the MSR estimate differed from the February estimate of the President's budget.

Children and the Federal Budget

The Urban Institute held an event today (video here) on children and the federal budget, which involved CRFB Senior Policy Director Marc Goldwein and board members Eugene Steuerle and Dan Crippen. The centerpiece of the event was Urban's newest "Kids' Share" report and what it means for policies related to children going forward.

Fiscal Fact Checker: What Caused the Swing From Surplus to Deficit?

The Hill points to a press release by Senator (and former OMB director) Rob Portman (R-OH) that claims the upper-income portion of the 2001/2003/2010 tax cuts accounted for only 4 percent of the swing from surpluses to deficits starting in the early 2000s.

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