Budget Projections

CRFB's Report on CBO's Analysis of the President's FY 2015 Budget

CBO has released their analysis of the President's FY 2015 Budget and CFRB released a report summarizing the findings. CBO finds a less optimistic outlook than the President's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) with debt up to 74.3 percent of GDP in 2024 as opposed to OMB’s projection of debt on a downward path toward 69.0 percent of GDP.

CBO Releases Analysis of the President's Budget

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its analysis of the President's FY 2015 budget, applying its own budget baseline and methodology to the President's policies. The agency finds that the budget would reduce debt relative to CBO's baseline by significantly less than the Administration anticipates, with debt on a modest upward path in the latter part of the ten-year budget window, increasing to 74.3 percent of GDP in 2024, rather than falling to 69 percent of GDP as OMB previously estimated.

Adding Realistic Assumptions to CBO's Baseline

CBO's most recent budget projections show debt on an unsustainable path – rising from a post-war record 73 percent of GDP today to 78 percent by 2024. Importantly, however, CBO's projections do not always reflect where debt is likely to go after accounting for the actions that lawmakers might take.

CBO Continues to Show Unsustainable Debt Path

In advance of the release of their analysis of the President's budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated their budget baseline for fiscal years 2015-2024. While the newest projections are a slight improvement over their previous estimates in February, they still show debt on a clear upward path as a share of GDP starting in 2018 and likely continuing over the long term. 

Taking the Long View on the Ryan Budget

House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's budget would substantially reduce deficits and debt over ten years, but one remaining question is what the budget would look like over the long term. The same day the budget was released, CBO produced an analysis of the budget that runs through 2040.

Taking Stock of the Long-Term Fiscal Picture

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) isn't the only agency in town that does long-term projections. The Treasury Department annually releases the Financial Report of the United States Government, which shows a number of different measures of the federal government's fiscal health both in the past fiscal year and over the next 75 years. That report shows the U.S. government has over $56 trillion of unfunded liabilities over the next 75 years.

Drawing a Realistic Baseline

CBO's recent budget projections show a much deteriorated budget outlook, with debt now rising faster over the coming decade than previously anticipated. Their projections, of course, are based a number of assumptions, including assumptions about future policy. Were Congress to make different policy choices than CBO assumes, debt numbers could change significantly.

CBO: The Deficit Will Be About $45 Billion Lower This Year But $1.7 Trillion Higher over Ten Years

In May of last year, CBO expected the 2014 deficit to fall to $560 billion from 2013's total of $680 billion. Now, CBO is estimating a deficit of $514 billion this year, a reduction of $46 billion compared to May.

CRFB Releases Analysis of CBO's 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook

Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released its 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook, serving as a budget baseline for the new year. To help make sense of the 182-page dense but informative report, CRFB has released a concise 7-page analysis that puts the new numbers in perspective.

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