Budget Projections

Carter and Weinstein: Look Beyond Ten Years

In an op-ed in POLITICO, former Senate Budget Committee staffer James Carter and Fiscal Commission adviser Paul Weinstein advised lawmakers to look beyond the short-term fiscal picture and the next ten years to the longer term. They note that too much focus has been on improvements in the near term due to legislative changes and technical re-estimates.

Comparing 2010 and 2013 Federal Government Spending

Late last week, the Washington Post's David Fahrenthold published a piece claiming that "big government is mostly unchanged" since 2010, when lawmakers turned their attention towards fiscal issues and Republicans took control of the House.

Peterson Foundation Depicts the Long Term...Interactively

Frequent readers of this blog will be familiar with projections of long term debt. But the Peterson Foundation has found an interesting interactive way to present that informs the viewers about what the long-term outlook looks like and what the possibilities are going forward.

Wessel: Prudent Politicians Would Focus on the Long Term, Today

In his column in today's Wall Street Journal and an accompanying audio clip, David Wessel takes on the question before Washington: Is the budget deficit falling, or does it pose a serious threat to the nation's prosperity? His answer: Yes to both. On one hand, the budget deficit is shrinking, due in large part to the recovering economy but also due to some of the savings lawmakers have enacted over the past year.

What the New GDP Numbers Mean for Budget Projections

Yesterday, we noted the revisions that CBO has made to its historical budget data going back to 1973, in light of the Bureau of Economic Analysis's revisions to GDP numbers going back to 1929. Although the nominal dollar totals are unaffected, numbers that were estimated as a percentage of GDP have all been revised downward, as a result of the higher GDP. We pointed out that the revisions were noticeable but certainly not huge.

CBO Updates Their Historical Budget Data

Nearly two weeks ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its GDP report with a $560 billion upward revision for 2012. As we explained at the time, the BEA has adopted a new accounting system, which changes the way GDP is measured. Now R&D and artistic creation are accounted for as investments, instead of as immediate expenditures. As a result, GDP appears larger than under previous measurements.

Kotlikoff Argues for Generational and Fiscal Gap Accounting

Detroit's recent bankruptcy makes it the largest municipal bankruptcy in our nation's history as the city seeks to restructure $18 billion in debt. However, this didn't just happen overnight, it was the result of years of deficit spending and inadequate revenues compounded and demonstrated in particular by its pension program.

Get Ready for Budget Numbers to Change

As of Wednesday's GDP report, GDP for fiscal year 2012 was revised upward by roughly $560 billion to a total of $16.2 trillion. This almost Houdini-like event is due in no part to direct increases in production and consumption, but rather it is the result of the Bureau of Economic Analysis's (BEA) new accounting system.

CRFB President Participates in Center for American Progress Event: "Is It Time to Hit the Reset Button on the Fiscal Debate?"

Today, the Center for American Progress (CAP) hosted a panel discussion featuring Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Senior Fellow Jared Bernstein, CAP President Neera Tanden, Concord Coalition Executive Director Robert Bixby, and President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Maya MacGuineas. 

CBO Estimates the Economic Hit of the Sequester

Today, the Congressional Budget Office released a report detailing the projected economic effects of repealing the sequester starting August 1. The report is timely considering the big role the sequester will play in the 2014 appropriations process which is now heating up.

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