Budget Projections

Interpreting Changes in Long-Term Projections

Yesterday, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities updated its long-term outlook for the federal budget and like our long-term Realistic Baseline, its shows debt on a clear upward path. Debt will fall in the next few years as the economy recovers and revenue rebounds, but will steadily rise in the following decades as the baby boomers retire and entitlement spending grows. By 2040, debt will have grown to nearly 100 percent of GDP in CBPP's Base Case scenario.

The Analysis of the Analysis: CRFB's Take on CBO's Immigration Estimates

CBO's recent budgetary and economic analyses of the Senate immigration bill have been making waves in the political sphere as lawmakers rush to highlight or disavow the findings of $197 billion of total deficit reduction through 2023 and almost $700 billion in the 2024-2033 period.

The Debt Won't Magically Solve Itself

Over the past few weeks, we've seen a common argument in favor of turning away from solving our long-term debt problem due to short-term improvements in the last CBO Economic and Budget Outlook.

Washington Post Makes the Case for Fiscal Space

When the financial crisis began at the end of 2007, it soon became clear that the government would need to run higher deficits in response. Tax revenue fell, spending on "automatic stabilizers" rose, and policymakers enacted new spending to stimulate the economy. At that time, the debt level was lower and in line with historical averages, giving lawmakers the room to borrow what they needed to adequately respond.

Gale on Deficit Optimism

As we've said before, while the new budget projections from the CBO are an encouraging sign, it is easy to be overly optimistic about what the revisions mean for our fiscal outlook. While short-term deficits are falling, the long-term path is worrisome and insufficient progress has been made on that front.

CED Responds to New CBO Projections

As we have written before, the CBO recently released updated projections that show an improvement in the fiscal climate. Based on CRFB’s realistic baseline, the new data suggests that the debt will rise to 76 percent of GDP in 2023 as opposed to 79 percent.

The Re-Estimated Bipartisan Path Forward

The CBO has now spoken on how the President's budget would affect the fiscal outlook. Debt would fall to 70 percent of GDP by 2023, compared to 73 percent under current law and 76 percent under our latest iteration of the CRFB Realistic baseline (though we are still working on the precise number as we get new information).

CBO Releases Analysis of President Obama's FY 2014 Budget

Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its analysis of President Obama’s FY 2014 budget request. CRFB has released a reaction to the score of the budget, praising the President for putting forward a deficit reduction offer that addresses the country's debt path, but warning that there would still need to be more done, particularly on entitlement spending.

The Latest on the Affordable Care Act

Although it may be difficult to get an updated comprehensive score of the Affordable Care Act from CBO, CBO has updated its estimate of the coverage provisions of the Affordable Care Act with each new baseline. This baseline is no exception.

$2.2 Trillion is the New $2.4 Trillion

In February, we wrote the paper "Our Debt Problems Are Far From Solved," laying out the case for putting debt on a clear downward path as a percent of GDP with $2.4 trillion of additional savings. CBO's improved budget projections have prompted a new round of discussion of what should be the right direction for the budget.

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