Budget Projections

CRFB Releases Analysis of CBO's 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook

Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released its 2014 Budget and Economic Outlook, serving as a budget baseline for the new year. To help make sense of the 182-page dense but informative report, CRFB has released a concise 7-page analysis that puts the new numbers in perspective.

Sources of Spending Growth in CBO's Baseline

The CBO's baseline released today shows how spending is expected to grow over time and where that growth occurs in the federal budget. In general, spending grows from 20.8 percent of GDP in 2013 to 22.4 percent by 2024. However, different categories of spending have much different fates within the overall total.

CBO Shows Deteriorating Budget and Economic Projections

The Super Bowl was held last Sunday, and the Olympics are coming up in a few days, but the biggest event this week happened today as CBO released its latest budget and economic projections for the next ten years. The odd scheduling of budget projection releases last year meant that there was no August update of the baseline, as there usually is, so these are the first projections in almost nine months.

The Longer We Wait, The Tougher the Choices Become

In our recent paper, "Our Long-Term Debt Problems are Very Far From Solved," we showed that while the debt problem may be long-term, solutions need to start today.

No, Actually, the Fiscal Gap Has Not Fallen by 8 Percentage Points

Last week, at a breakfast with David Wessel and Gerald Seib of The Wall Street Journal, Council of Economic Advisers chair Jason Furman made the case that not only had short-term deficits been coming down, but also that the long-term situation has improved dramatically.

Deficits are a First-Order Problem

Yesterday, Former Treasury Secretary and director of the National Economic Council Larry Summers argued that “budget deficits are now a second-order problem” and the focus should instead be on economic growth. Although the piece is in many ways insightful, it could perpetuate the myth in Washington that our debt problems are either solved or are no longer a pressing concern.

Introducing CRFB's Latest Long-Term Realistic Baseline

The release of the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) Long-Term Budget Outlook is one of the big events in the budget world, and we'd like to think that this blog is as well: the update of our CRFB Realistic Long-Term Baseline. Based off of the ten-year CRFB Realistic Baseline and CBO data, our long-term baseline draws a plausible path for where our future deficits and debt are headed.

CBO Releases Long-Term Budget Outlook

It's here — CBO has released its updated long-term baseline. Since December, many commentators have attempted to see where we stand since the fiscal cliff deal and recent slowdown in health care cost growth, coming to very different conclusions.

Budget Director: We Still Have a Long-Term Debt Problem

Reading the news these days, you might think our debt problem has been solved: the federal deficit has been revised downward and is falling to its lowest level in five years. Yesterday, however, Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Doug Elmendorf made clear that he, for one, does not subscribe to that view.

It's Official: Budget Projections Have Changed

Last month after the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised their GDP numbers going back to 1929, we decided to take the intiative and project what the changes would do to CBO's current ten-year budget projections.

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