Budget Projections

Peterson Foundation Analyzes the Fiscal Cliff Deal

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation has released a new report on the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) and its effect on the long-term outlook, similiar to our previous analysis of the medium-term and long-term debt paths after the deal.

Hindsight is 20/20: A Look Back at CBO's Economic Forecasting

Our recent blog "Putting the Debt on a Downward Path" emphasizes how changes in economic projections can affect the budget for better or for worse.

Putting the Debt on a Downward Path

Yesterday, President Obama suggested we need about $1.5 trillion in deficit reduction on top of what has been enacted so far, a claim which matches a recent analysis from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities showing $1.4 trillion as sufficient to stabilize the debt. As we gear up for another round of

The Post-Deal Long Term Outlook

So far, we have analyzed the fiscal cliff deal by looking at the good, the bad, and the ugly in the package, showing what the deal does to the budget, and estimating the short-term economic impact of the deal. This blog will look at the potential impact of the deal over the long term.

How Does the Budget Look Now?

After a tense few days, or weeks for that matter, lawmakers have enacted a fiscal cliff package -- the American Taxpayer Relief Act. With budget negotiations likely laying low for a few days, we turn our attention to where the deal leaves the budget. We previously analyzed the budgetary effect of each provision of the deal relative to both current law and current policy. In this blog, we will go into more detail on what the budget will look like after the deal.

GAO Releases Its Long Term Fiscal Outlook

The Government Accountability Office has updated its long-term budget outlook, showing once again that our budget deficit needs to seriously be addressed on both the revenue and the spending side. The problem is too big to not put everything on the table.

CBO Quantifies the Fiscal Cliff and the Challenge Ahead

CBO has released two new reports that detail our short run problem of the fiscal cliff and the long term challenge of reducing the debt. Reading the reports together gives a good idea of the challenges lawmakers face as they work to replace the fiscal cliff with a "grand bargain."

The Final Tally for 2012: $1.09 Trillion Deficit

CBO's final Monthly Budget Review for FY 2012 came out today, showing the (preliminary) final estimate for the deficit that year: $1.09 trillion, or 7.0 percent of GDP. This figure is about $40 billion less than the $1.13 trillion deficit (7.3 percent of GDP) that CBO projected for 2012 in August and about $210 billion less than the $1.3 trillion (8.7 percent of GDP) deficit in 2011.

The Concord Coalition and Next 10 Release Budget Simulator

Today, the Concord Coalition and Next 10 released a new budget simulator that allows participants to choose for themselves how to reduce our unsustainable budget deficit. The simulator presents a wide range of options on both the spending and revenue sides, and calculates with interest what the budget deficit or surplus would be over the next 10 years.

What Else is New? Changes in CBO's Baseline

Naturally, when a new budget projection is released, as CBO's updated baseline was yesterday, a good question to ask is: what happened? It is interesting to see how the budget projections change as time unfolds and CBO incorporates new data. As is often the case, the answer boils down to mostly economic and technical revisions to health care, interest spending, and revenue.

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