Budget Projections

A "Dynamic" Amendment to the Senate Budget

Among the many amendments that were voted on to the Senate budget resolution, one caught the eye of POLITICO: Sen. Rob Portman's (R-OH) amendment to have the Congressional Budget Office/Joint Committee on Taxation use dynamic scoring.

The Uncertainty of Long-Term Projections

The Economic Policy Institute's Ethan Pollack has a blog post questioning the accuracy and ultimate usefulness of long-term (75-year) budget projection, especially CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario (AFS).

An Interesting Analysis of Interest Rates

The Congressional Budget Office has been busy on its blog lately, posting both snapshots of federal programs and also publishing responses to questions they have received from Members of Congress at hearings. Their latest post from director Doug Elmendorf is the latter variety, showing the sensitivity of budget projections to changes in interest rates.

How Much Might the Ryan Budget Have to Change to Reach Balance?

With the new expectation that the House budget resolution will reach balance in 10 years -- more than 15 years earlier than was projected last year -- there has been much speculation about how House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) will modify last year's budget to reach the more aggressive target.

The New Target: At Least $2.4 Trillion of Additional Deficit Reduction

President Obama was recently quoted in the Washington Post as saying that an additional $1.5 trillion of deficit reduction would hit the $4 trillion total that many have cited as the target for total deficit reduction. While we agree on the enacted savings total, we disagree on the math.

The CRFB Realistic Projections

Analyses of the CBO budget baseline generally focus on the current law baseline, the one that CBO presents in most detail. In the past, we constructed a CRFB Realistic baseline to account for many policies scheduled to expire/happen in current law that we thought were unrealistic. The Realistic baseline showed a much worse fiscal outlook than the current law baseline.

What's Changed Since August?

In CBO’s latest Budget and Economic Outlook, much has changed since their August baseline. As we explain in our report on the February baseline, the majority of change results from the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA). However, there are several other legislative, technical, and economic revisions that for the most part cancel each other out but are still worth highlighting.

Legislative Changes

CRFB Releases Analysis of CBO's February Baseline

CBO's release of its annual Budget and Economic Outlook is a treasure trove of information, sometimes not easily digestible.

To help put all that information in a more accessible form, CRFB released a brief 6 page analysis of CBO's new economic and budget projections, which are first official look at future budget projections in light of the fiscal cliff deal and other developments.

It's Showtime: CBO's New Budget and Economic Projections

For 49ers and Ravens fans, the Super Bowl was the big game of the 2012 NFL season. For budget wonks, today is that day, as CBO has released its budget and economic projections. These projections show what we previously thought, that debt is on an upward path as a percent of GDP under CBO's current law and Alternative Fiscal Scenario projections.

Doing More Than Just Hitting the Target

Our blog yesterday noted that the debate over stimulus versus deficit reduction is much more nuanced than is often portrayed. Although these positions are sometimes characterized as directly opposing, there is often a lot of overlap. We described the difference as more about emphasis rather than direction.

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